Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 26th
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Dan Straily, Lotte Giants, $24 FD/$9,500 DK – The Lotte Giants have been unable to play for two straight nights as they’ve been rained out. Straily will finally get to pitch today and he’s easily the top pitcher on the board, leading the position with a 28.4% K rate and a 2.10 ERA/2.76 FIP. The price tag on DK is mostly on the fair side but on FD he’s the fifth highest priced pitcher, which makes him by far the best pitching value on that site. Pursue him aggressively.
Drew Gagnon, KIA Tigers, $27 FD/$7,900 DK – Gagnon is priced very efficiently but he should be viewed as the top pitcher that’s priced below $8,000 on DK. The matchup against the Kiwoom Heroes isn’t a good one (averaging the third highest amount of runs this season), but Gagnon’s 25.7% K rate is the second highest K rate in this slate and he’s gotten quite unlucky on the run prevention department (3.94 ERA/2.79 FIP). We’re willing to overlook the matchup given his ability to miss bats.
Casey Kelly, LG Twins, $25 FD/$9,000 DK – If Gagnon’s matchup scares you away, then Kelly will be the natural pivot. Unfortunately for Kelly, he’s $1,100 more expensive than Gagnon on DK and his K upside (17% K rate over the last 225 IP) is underwhelming. Kelly will need a big turnaround on the run prevention side in order to provide value as his ERA has spiked up to 5 this season. This is the right matchup for the run prevention to turn around as the SK Wyverns have performed as the second worst offense in the KBO this season, averaging 3.8 runs per game.
Honorable mention: Hyeong Jun So (KTW) (not a good pitcher by any means but the matchup against the Hanwha Eagles is a perfect one to run good on BABIP; viable as a SP2 on DK)
The Twins’ lefty heavy lineup gets a matchup against Geon Wook Lee, who’s posted a 16.9% K rate/13.3% BB rate and a 3.42 ERA/4.97 FIP over the last 26 IP. In other words, Lee isn’t a good pitcher and has only been serviceable because he’s gotten quite lucky on the run prevention side early in the season. This is an upside spot for the Twins, and you can’t leave out Roberto Ramos (LG) if you’re stacking this team. Ramos has slowed down quite a bit after an ankle injury forced him to miss a few games, but if the early season production serves as indication, he’s bound to pick it up in a big way. Ramos has already hit 13 home runs this season and looks primed to be one of the better power hitters in this league. The other high caliber hitter that you want to pair with Ramos is former MLBer Hyun Soo Kim (LG). Leadoff hitter Chun Woong Lee (LG) is affordable on both sites and has some speed upside (5 stolen bases this season; 21 stolen bases last season). The Twins don’t lead the slate in implied team total and perhaps that can temper their ownership some.
The Dinos are the team that leads the slate in implied total (6), which is the least surprising development. The Dinos have been on an absolute tear this season, averaging 6.5 runs per game and hitting 63 home runs as a team – both league leading marks. Sung Bum Na (NCD), Eui Ji Yang (NCD), Jin Sung Kang (NCD) and Aaron Altherr (NCD) are the primary options in this deep offense. The matchup against Jong Gi Park is difficult to evaluate given the lack of a sample size we have for Park. Given the Dinos’ track record this season, matchup is likely something not to worry about here, especially when you consider that Park doesn’t project to be anywhere near an “ace” caliber pitcher. The Dinos are likely going to draw the most ownership of any team in this slate.
The Wiz have easily the toughest matchup of the top three stacks in this slate as Warwick Saupold has posted a 3.48 ERA over the last 250.7 IP. Where Saupold gets in trouble is in the strikeout department as he’s only generated a 15.9% K rate. And that’s where the KT Wiz get an edge, specifically with free swingers Mel Rojas Jr (KTW) (15 home runs) and Baek Ho Kang (KTW) (10 home runs). Jeong Dae Bae (KTW) continues to leadoff and he’s still priced below $3,000 on DK. Given the pitching matchup, it’s highly unlikely that the Wiz garner big ownership and that’s another plus for those that are looking to back them up in tournaments. The Wiz have the second highest implied run total (5.5) in this slate.
Honorable mention: KIA Tigers (the Tigers have a legitimate case to being considered as a top three stack in this slate given their matchup Young Gun Jo, who has more walks than strikeouts this season)