Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 28th
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Aaron Brooks, KIA Tigers, $28 FD/$8,500 DK – Brooks isn’t a big favorite (-106) and the matchup against the Kiwoom Heroes (averaging 5.7 runs per game) is a difficult one. That’s where the negatives end for Brooks, who we consider to be the top pitching play in this slate. Brooks’ 22.2% K rate leads all pitchers in this slate and he’s been a staple of consistency thus far at the KBO, generating double digit Fantasy points in all of his nine starts. That includes starts against the Doosan Bears, NC Dinos, Kiwoom Heroes and the KT Wiz. None of that is predictive and has to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, but Brooks’ underlying numbers have been very strong and could explain why he’s done well even in difficult matchups. We’re pursuing him across all formats around the industry.
Odrisamer Despaigne, KT Wiz, $26 FD/$8,100 DK – Despaigne is the opposite of Brooks, as he’s been anything but consistent in his KBO debut. Despaigne started off the season on a heater, striking out 18 batters in 17 IP and allowing four earned runs. Over his last five starts, Despaigne has allowed 20 earned runs and his K rate has come down significantly, which has brought his seasonal K rate down to 17%. So why are we touting Despaigne as a top two pitching play in this slate? Well, for starters, he’s the largest favorite (-205) in this slate, which puts his implied odds to win at 64%. Additionally, the matchup against the Hanwha Eagles is as good of a get well matchup as it gets, as they’re averaging a league worst 3.5 runs per game. Brooks is the better pitcher but Despaigne’s context is difficult to overlook.
Finding the third best pitching play in this slate is very difficult. Chris Flexen (DOO) (22% K rate) and Drew Rucinski (NCD) (2.95 ERA but a 3.92 FIP points towards some decently sized regression) are clearly some of the more talented pitchers in action today but they’re facing the two best offenses in the league, the Doosan Bears and the NC Dinos. They’re viable plays in tournaments but their difficult matchups makes them shakier plays.
Perhaps Se Woong Park (LOT) has to be taken seriously in this slate. He’s NOT a good pitcher (6.58 ERA over the last 149 IP) but Samsung has performed as a bottom four offense at the KBO this season and Park is just $6,500 on DK. The cheap price tag and decent matchup are enough to consider Park today.
The Twins haven’t been great of late but there’s no denying that they’re the top stack in this slate. Opposing pitcher Joo Han Kim has a bigger walk rate (14.2% BB rate) than strikeout rate (13.4% KK rate) and has allowed the third highest ISO (.148) of any pitcher in this slate. Enter Roberto Ramos (LG) and Hyun Soo Kim (LG), the best hitters on this team. Ramos has been ice cold of late but has been one of the better power hitters (13 home runs) in the KBO this season. Perhaps the recent stretch of ugly performances dilutes the Twins’ ownership. Nonetheless, you’ll want a piece of them in this slate.
Opposing pitcher Chad Bell has been a very meh starter at the KBO, generating a 17.4% K rate and a 4.38 FIP over the last 204 IP. Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) and Baek Ho Kang (KTW) are by far the best hitters on this team and deserve to be considered as core pieces of KT Wiz stacks. Jeong Dae Bae (KTW) is still priced cheaply on DK ($3,000) despite hitting second of late. The same goes for leadoff hitter Yong Ho Jo (KTW), who’s just $2,800 on DK. Jo doesn’t have any power upside but he’s stolen four bases this season. The KT Wiz should easily be considered as a top two stack in this slate and given their seasonal track record, we wouldn’t fault you for ranking them ahead of the Twins today.
The Giants are in an upside spot today as opposing pitcher Dae Woo Kim has allowed a .213 ISO and a 1.53 HR/9 over the last 129 IP. Both of those marks are easily the worst of any pitcher in this slate. Dae Ho Lee (LOT), Jun Woo Jeon (LOT), Ah Seop Son (LOT) and Dixon Machado (LOT) are primary targets in Giants’ stacks, while Dong Hee Han (LOT) is a viable salary relief option ($2,200 on DK) at the barren third base position.
Honorable mention: NC Dinos (a tough matchup will likely crater their ownership and they’ve performed as the best and most powerful offense at the KBO this season)