Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 2nd
Welcome to a slate lacking a single pitcher in a true smash spot and one without a single implied total over 6.0-runs. The status of Roberto Ramos (LG) hinges in the balance of his manager after leaving Sunday’s game with a thigh issue. Let’s get to work…
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:
Jae Hak Lee, NC Dinos, $8,700 DK – Three of Jae Hak Lee’s (NCD) first four starts have resulted in 15-plus DK fantasy points and the matchup is ripe for a solid outing once again. Although the Wyverns have been passed in terms of K rate, they still strike out at the second highest rate in the league, and have averaged just 4.17 runs per game (R/G) and 0.78 home runs (HR) per game (HR/G). Both the top hitters in the Wyverns lineup, Jamie Romak (SK) and Jeong Choi (SK), hit from the right side of the plate, so we prefer targeting right-handed pitchers (RHPs) versus this lineup in general. Lee is the heaviest favorite of the slate, so we expect him to be heavily-owned in all formats, but likely rightfully so. The one issue with Lee is his lack of elite K rate but the matchup versus the Wyverns should eliminate that concern completely (if only for one night only).
Odrisamer Despaigne, KT Wiz, $8,200 DK – If playing the talent card, Odrisamer Despaigne (KTW) is the best pure pitcher on the slate, but draws one of the more difficult matchups. His opponent, the Doosan Bears, have struck out at by far the lowest rate in the KBO (15.2-percent) and average the fourth most R/G. While the matchup limits the upside, Despaigne should be priced above $10,000 in most spots, so the price discount at $8,200 cannot be overlooked either. Due to lack of strong alternatives, he may push 50-percent ownership, and it will depend where you land on the talent versus matchup debate as to whether you roster him or not.
Ki Young Im, Kia Tigers, $7,300 DK – Those who fade either of the top pitching options will likely like to Ki Young Im (KIA) for the salary relief. Like the other options on the slate, he is not without downside, as he had struggled to keep the ball in the yard over the past two seasons (27 HRs allowed in 153.2 IP during that span). However, he has given a full-time opportunity to start ballgames in 2020, and the early results have been remarkable; he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 23.0-percent K rate, 6.0-percent BB rate and 2.93 FIP through four starts. Meanwhile, the Lotte Giants, after a hot start, have regressed down to just the third fewest R/G and have now hit just the fewest HR/G. While they do not strike out at a high clip (16.7-percent), they are not a potent offense either. I peronsally think you trust the hot start and take the salary relief to afford the bats.
Honorable Mention: Hyun Hee Han (KIW) is the lucky pitcher tasked with facing the Hanwha Eagles tonight but his skillset is not overly exciting. Tae In Won (SAM) has posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 16.5-percent K rate through five games but the underlying numbers suggest he is due for regression. At just $6,800 on DK, he is really the only other starting pitcher worth taking a chance on in single-entry/three-max (if attempting to differentiate from the field).
Se Woong Park (LOT) owns a miserable 6.73 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 1.06 HR/9 rate and 4.85 FIP over the course of his last 28 starts….and his K/BB ratio during that span is barely 1.5/1. For Park, that means bad news versus a Kia Tigers offense headlined by the likes of lefties Preston Tucker (KIA) and Hyung-woo Choi (KIA) who both own the platoon advantage against him. Tucker is emerging as one of the top five or so bats in the entire league so he is the clear top priority from the offense. However, the DailyRoto model also projects above average wOBAs for Sun-bin Kim (KIA), Ji-wan Na (KIA) and Min-sang Yoo (KIA) in the split against RHP as well. While this team will garner attention, they will likely come in at number two or three in terms of overall stack ownership.
To start the year, 20-year old Tae In Won (SAM) has pitched relatively well, compiling a respectable 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, Won has only struck out opponents at a 16.5-percent rate and owns a BABIP against of just .269 (which is well below the league-average in this league). Furthermore, his 80.5-percent LOB rate is a full 13.5-percentage points above his total last year, and the 4.87 FIP shows he has pitched well over his head. Regression is coming in the near future and what better duo of hitters to jump start the process than Roberto Ramos (LG), who leads the league in homers, and “hitting machine” Hyun Soo Kim (LG). Only two teams have averaged more R/G than the Twins this year and their 5.5-run implied total tonight is tied for third highest of the slate.
Welcome to tonight’s chalk and this lineup has a potential to get even chalkier now that DK has moved Jin Sung Kang (NCD) to 1B/OF (and his ownership does not have to compete with that of Eu Ji Yang (NCD) at catcher). Opposing starter Seung Won Moon (SK) has allowed a whopping 49 homers since the start of the 2018 season and his 1.4 HR/9 rate in 2019 ranked fifth worst amongst all qualified starters. The correlation is unmistakeable here considering the Dinos lead the league by almost 0.5 HR/G. No team has scored more runs per game than the Dinos either and they face the most power-prone pitcher of the night. No question, they are a tough fade, but pieces of the team could exceed 60-percent ownership (beginning with Sung Bum Na (NCD)).
Honorable mention: The Kiwoom Heroes will face Ee Whan Kim (HAN) and his higher BB rate than K rate over the course of the past two seasons. Lastly, the KT Wiz will take on a starting pitcher that has struck out under 11-percent of the hitters he has faced dating back to 2018 (329.1 IP sample). During that span, Hui Kwan Yu has allowed nearly a home run per inning (0.87) and owns a WHIP approaching 1.50 (1.49).