Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 30th
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Mike Wright, NC Dinos, $28 FD/$9,500 DK – Wright’s performance to date has been largely unimpressive, posting a 19.3% K rate, 10.8% BB rate and a 3.60 ERA/4.85 FIP. The 6-2 win/loss record and the lucky run prevention has carried his value. Even after accounting for all of that, Wright should be viewed as a top pitching play. He’s a slate high -300 favorite (71.5% implied odds to win) in a matchup against a Lotte Giants’ offense that’s performed as the third worst offense in the KBO this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game. We’re not fans of Wright’s price tags but given the rest of the pitching in this slate outside of Ki Young Im, you’ll be forced to consider him across all formats regardless.
Ki Young Im, KIA Tigers, $28 FD/$7,800 DK – Im gives Mike Wright a real run for top pitcher in this slate. Im’s numbers don’t look good over the last 197 IP as he’s only generated a 16% K rate and has allowed a 1.32 HR/9. However, through 43 IP this season, Im has struck out 39 batters, walked seven and allowed two home runs en route to a 2.91 ERA. All things considered, we think Im has been a more impressive pitcher than Wright and he’s in an even better matchup against a Hanwha Eagles offense that’s averaging a league worse 3.5 runs per game. Im is a -245 favorite and that coupled with his level of performance makes him underpriced on DK. He’s our favorite play on the board.
Chae Heung Choi, Samsung Lions, $27 FD/$7,400 DK – Choi is the third best pitching play in this slate. He’s only posted an 18.6% K rate over the last 173 IP but his matchup against the SK Wyverns (averaging 3.7 runs per game; second worst mark in the KBO) can’t be overlooked. Ultimately, Choi is just an okay pitcher whose value is mostly tied to a good matchup and solid odds to win (56.2% implied odds to win).
Honorable mention: Shi Hwan Jang (HAN) (46 Ks in 37 IP this season; his K upside alone puts him in the map and gives him a legitimate ceiling of finishing as one the better pitching plays)
The Dinos and Doosan Bears have a similar implied total today but the main reason the Dinos rank ahead is because they hit for more power (league leading 68 home runs) and steal more bases (28). In other words, the Dinos generate more events and if you’ve used our MLB product before, you know that events are key in DFS. Sung Bum Na (NCD) is the home run leader (13) in this offense, but Aaron Altherr (NCD) is right behind him (12) and the latter has also stolen eight bases. Eui Ji Yang (NCD) and Jin Sung Kang (NCD) should be viewed as primary options as well in a very deep offense. The Dinos are facing Dae Woo Kim to start the game, but Kim isn’t going to pitch deep into this game. Expect a bullpen game from the Lotte Giants and bullpens at the KBO allow significantly more contact than the ones you’re used to seeing (MLB), which is the biggest reason why they’re not as good.
The Bears (293) are right behind the Dinos (298) in runs scored this season and they’ve generated the third highest home runs (49) in the league. Jose Fernandez (DOO) and Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) are the best hitters from this team and shouldn’t be left off Bears’ stacks. Jae Il Oh (DOO) has posted home run totals in four consecutive seasons and should be viewed as a primary piece of Bears’ stacks. Kyoung Min Hur (DOO) projects to leadoff once again and he’s a $2,900 third baseman on DK. Expect the Bears to be right behind the Dinos in ownership today.
The Twins are tied for the highest implied total (6) in this slate and will very likely trail the teams above in ownership. Opposing pitcher Min Soo Kim has only posted a 15.3% K rate over the last 109.3 IP. It’s worth mentioning that Roberto Ramos (LG) has slowed down in a big way of late, with his only extra base hit over the last 10 games being a double. We’re not sure if pitchers are just figuring out Ramos more or if he’s been unlucky or a combination of both, but what we knew is that his level of performance to start the season was completely unsustainable. While Ramos’ performance has taken a nosedive, his price tag hasn’t come down ($5,600 on DK). It’s a great time to buy him in tournaments. Hyun Soo Kim (LG) has been the more consistent hitter and he shouldn’t be left off Twins’ stacks. Ji Hwan Oh (LG) leads this team in stolen bases (9) and he typically hits second. He’s a primary play in this stack as well.
Honorable mention: KIA Tigers (Opposing pitcher Shi Hwan Jang has impressed with Ks, but he’s been bitten by walks and some power; it’s possible to play both sides of the coin here in GPPs) and Samsung Lions (same implied total as the KIA Tigers, they’re going to be low owned and they run A LOT; 44 stolen bases as a team leads the league by a wide margin)