Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 3rd
UPDATE: FanDuel is still undergoing maintenance and they’re not offering KBO games today as a result.
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:
Hyun Jong Yang, KIA Tigers, $9,900 DK – Yang is the deserving top pitching play in this slate. While Yang isn’t the biggest favorite (-165), he owns the biggest K rate and the biggest sample of any pitcher today. Over the last 395 innings pitched, Yang has generated a 20.6% K rate and a 5.2% BB rate. He also owns a 3.33 ERA/3.17 FIP. Yang does have two disaster starts this season, including one in his latest start against the KT Wiz in which he allowed six earned runs in five innings. Additionally, the price tag on DK is very efficient. Still, his K rate is good enough that if he runs good on run prevention/earns the win, he can pay it off. Yang won’t check all the boxes but that goes for every other pitcher in this slate, too. He’s viable across all formats.
Casey Kelly, LG Twins, $8,800 DK – You could make a strong case for Kelly as the top outright pitching play in this slate. However, where Kelly falls short of Hyun Jong Yang is on the K rate side, as he’s posted a 17.4% K rate over the last 200 innings pitched.Kelly struck out 10 batters in his last start. He doesn’t have that sort of upside from start to start and that’s certainly far from his median outcome. However, Kelly’s run prevention has been better than Yang’s, as he’s posted a 2.70 ERA/3.14 FIP. Run prevention is noisier than strikeouts in general, and that’s a big reason why we’d rather side with Yang as the top pitcher. On the other hand, Kelly is also the largest favorite (-203) in this slate and has a strong matchup against the Hanwha Eagles.
The names that are in contention for third best pitcher in this slate have challenging profiles. The pitcher we trust the most from a workload perspective is Warwick Saupold (Hanwha Eagles/$9,500 DK), but he’s clearly overpriced, particularly when you consider that he’s posted a 16% K rate over the last couple of seasons. Sung Young Choi (NC Dinos/$6,500 DK) only pitched 3.1 innings in his first start this season. We’re expecting him to have a bigger workload this time around and he’s the second highest favorite (-195) in this slate. We’d rather take a chance on Choi than Saupold and Adrian Sampson (Lotte Giants/$8,200 DK). Sampson should have better results at the KBO than he did in the majors, but his workload should remain somewhat limited over the next few starts. You could take a chance at him in MME but ultimately we feel that Choi’s price tag puts him in a better position to exceed value regardless of format.
After laying low for a small stretch of games, the Bears were back at it yesterday, generating 11 runs in their series opener against the KT Wiz. Today, the KT Wiz are sending Hyeong Jun So to the mound, a RHP that has accumulated a 7.06 ERA through four starts this season. Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) and Jae Il Oh (DOO) will have the platoon edge in this matchup and they should all be considered as primary pieces in Doosan Bears’ stacks. Soo Bin Jung (DOO) is another LHB that has been leading off of late for the Bears. He’s just $2,300 on DK, which is far too cheap of a price tag for a potential leadoff hitter for an offense that owns an implied run total of 7+ runs. To top things off, the KT Wiz’ bullpen has performed as the worst bullpen in the league thus far this season, posting a 7.82 ERA. The Bears are poised for another big night but their ownership should be pretty significant as well.
The KT Wiz have scored 20 runs over their last couple of games and have performed as one of the best offenses in the KBO this season, averaging nearly seven runs per game. Today, the KT Wiz are part of a game that carries an insane game total of 13 runs. LHB Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) has been on a tear this season, generating a 1.168 OPS and seven home runs. Yong Ho Jo (KTW) is a LHB that’s been hitting third of late and he’s just $2,600 on DK. Shortstop Woo Jun Sim (KTW) is a leadoff hitter in this offense and he remains affordable ($3,100 on DK). Jeong Dae Bae (KTW) has been hitting second of late and he’s cheap ($2,300 on DK) as well. This KT Wiz offense fits very well in this slate given that our top play at pitcher is priced at nearly $10,000 on DK and the second best play behind him is $8,800.
Is it possible that the Dinos are a bit forgotten today? They’ve performed as the best offense in the KBO this season, averaging 6.91 runs per game, but their implied total will be lower than the Bears and KT Wiz today. Fire up Sung Bum Na (NCD), Eui Ji Yang (NCD), Jin Sung Kang (NCD) as primary options and Aaron Altherr (NCD) as a secondary option. Altherr has been hitting towards the bottom of the Dinos’ lineup but he carries tournament winning upside due to his power potential.