Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 7th
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:
Odrisamer Despaigne, KT Wiz, $28 FD/$8,300 DK – There isn’t a single pitcher in this slate with a K rate baseline above 20%. The closest would be Despaigne, who’s posted a 19.3% K rate through six starts at the KBO. We can’t say for certain that Despaigne will own a 19% K rate for the rest of season but his performance overall should improve significantly when compared to his time in the majors. Not only is Despaigne’s K rate up, but his run prevention has been much better at the KBO (3.89 ERA/3.20 FIP). On the other hand, he’s coming off a very ugly outing in which he allowed 10 earned runs, so the recent performance is shaky to say the least. Still, he owns the second highest implied odds to win (60.9%) as a -178 favorite in a matchup against a Lotte Giants’ offense that has fallen to second worst in run scoring per game (just above four runs). We’re considering Despaigne across all formats despite his inability to check all the boxes.
Jae Hak Lee, NC Dinos, $25 FD/$$8,800 DK – Our top two pitchers in this slate are coming off disaster outings in which they posted -10 and -20 DraftKings points respectively. Not great. To top things off, Lee is even shakier from a strikeout perspective, as he owns a 16.8% K rate over the last 308.7 IP (innings pitched). The two meaningful things for Lee are the following: he owns the highest implied odds to win (67%) as a slate high -240 favorite and the matchup against the Hanwha Eagles is as good as it gets for run prevention, as the Eagles are the only team in the KBO that’s averaging less than four runs per game. You won’t be able to be picky with pitchers today. You’re simply looking for pitchers in this slate that check enough boxes, and Lee is easily one of them.
Seung Won Moon, SK Wyverns, $26 FD/$8,100 DK – Since 2018 (321 IP), Won Moon has posted an 18% K rate and a 4.31 ERA/4.86 FIP. This season, Won Moon has struck out 26 batters in 26 IP. It’s unlikely that he’s all of a sudden a strikeout per inning pitcher moving forward but the list of pitchers that have that sort of upside in this slate is very short. That strikeout upside alone could make Won Moon the highest scoring pitcher in this slate and he challenges Jae Hak Lee for second best starting pitcher today despite his implied odds to win (48.7%) being significantly lower than Lee’s.
Honorable mention: Woo Chan Ha (LG); tough matchup against the red hot Kiwoom Heroes but he’s generated 26 Ks through 27 IP this season), David Buchanan (SAM).
The Dinos are the only team in the KBO that are averaging OVER seven runs per game. Seven! Here are their run scoring totals over the last four games: 14, 13, 10, 8. This offense is led by Sung Bum Na (NCD), who’s ranked as our top overall hitter in this slate. Na is up to 10 home runs and a 1.132 OPS this season. He’ll have the platoon edge against righty Ee Whan Kim, who’s posted an 11% K rate and a 5.70 FIP over the last 59 IP. Eui Ji Yang (NCD) is very expensive on DK ($6,100) but he should still be played in NCD stacks. Yang is having an “off season” and he’s still hitting .300 with four home runs. He’s still regarded as the best hitting catcher in the KBO. Aaron Altherr (NCD) has now hit seven home runs. He’s still hitting towards the bottom of the lineup but his power upside is so immense that he should be considered regardless. The Dinos should be plenty popular today given their seasonal track record and their slate leading 6.5 implied total.
The Bears are arguably in the best spot of any offense in this slate. This is a left-handed heavy lineup facing the worst pitcher in this slate, Ki Young Im. The latter has allowed an unprecedented 1.44 HR/9 over the last 180.7 IP and owns a near-slate worst 5.73 ERA/5.54 FIP. Of course, the main issue as always with a pitcher that’s so bad statistically is that he doesn’t miss bats (15.6% K rate). Fire up Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) and Jae Il Oh (DOO) as primary targets. Jae Ho Kim (DOO) isn’t a primary target but he’s a very cheap shortstop ($2,600 on DK) that can complement this expensive stack.
The top three offenses in the KBO this season have been the Dinos (#1), Bears (#2) and Wiz (#3). Coincidentally, these three offenses are ranked the same as their seasonal totals today in our stack rankings. The Wiz are also facing a mediocre RHP that doesn’t miss bats (Se Woong Park – 15.9% K rate, 6.70 ERA). You can make a strong case for Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) as a top 1-3 hitter in this slate as he’ll have the platoon edge in an incredible matchup. Rojas Jr. is up to a .413 batting average and nine home runs this season. Woo Jun Sim (KTW) ($3,400) and Young Ho Jo (KTW) ($3,000) remain affordable on DK and they hit leadoff and third respectively in this lineup.
Honorable mention: Kiwoom Heroes (implied total of six runs is the same as the Bears and the Wiz today), KIA Tigers (opposing pitcher owns a slate worst 10.6% K rate), Roberto Ramos (LG Twins; Ramos, the owner of a league best .499 wOBA and .423 ISO this season, remains severely underpriced on DK for a L/R matchup).