Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for May 29th
What an absolutely loaded pitching slate tonight that includes three different games with 10-plus run totals. Should be a barnburner.
Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:
Aaron Brooks, Kia Tigers, $8,100 DK/$26 FD – Unlike the so-called aces on the slate, Aaron Brooks (KIA) has shown the ability to miss bats an elite rate, having posted a 22.8-percent K rate thus far in the KBO. Brooks’ 2.35 FIP is over half a run lower than any other pitcher on the slate and yet he is priced $1,000-plus cheaper than the most expensive pitcher on the DK slate. The Kia Tigers’ top asset is their patience at the plate and Brooks has not issued free passes at all to this point; he owns a slate-low 2.97-percent BB rate. The Tigers have also struck out at a league-average rate and Brooks legitimately appears to be one of the best pitchers in the entire league. Since he is not priced like such, consider him an exceptional value in all formats.
Raul Alcantara, Doosan Bears, $7,700 DK/$25 FD – On a slate that features a plethora of aces, Raul Alcantara (DOO) should fly under the radar in one of the best possible matchups. Over the course of their last four games, the Lotte Giants have scored just five runs, and this is an offense that ranked dead last in the league in runs scored last season. When he last pitched in the MLB, Alcantara averaged nearly 96.0 mph on his fastball, which is an outlier number in this league. In other words, in the right matchup, he should be able to blow his fastball by hitters, and his Achilles heel has been his susceptibility to power. Thus far, the Giants have hit just 0.83 homers per game (HR/G) and that number has been tanking as of late. At just $7,700, we view Alcantara as one of the best differentiation plays of the night.
Min Woo Kim, Hanwha Eagles, $6,900 DK/$26 FD – Min Woo Kim (HAN) has pitched over his head to this point (4.50 FIP, 2.25 ERA) but has been missing bats and faces the nuts matchup versus the strikeout-prone SK Wyverns. Not only have they struck out at the highest rate in the league but they average the fewest R/G and have hit the second fewest HR/G. In other words, the walls are not likely to come crumbling down this time out specifically, and he features significant upside at a sub-$7,000 cost.
Honorable Mentions: Drew Rucinski (NCD) is a theoretically safe SP1 against a Samsung Tigers offense that ranks eighth in R/G and Eric Jokisch (KIW) is one of the top talents on the slate but faces a KT Wiz squad that has struck out at the second lowest rate (and just torched lefty Hyun-jong Yang (KIA) last night. Tae Hoon Kim (SK) has adjusted well to his role as a starter although his .145 BABIP against and 12.7-percent BB rate are concerning for the long run. Just for tonight’s purposes, the matchup against the Hanwha Eagles should limit the downside, and he is cheap specifically on DK ($6,900). Realistically, if playing multiple lineups, this is a slate to differentiate pitchers, as the pool is uniquely deep (especially comparatively to recent slates).
Here we go again. Once again, the red-hot NC Dinos will face the clear worst starting pitcher on the slate, and they are going to be tough to get away from. Dae Woo Kim (SAM) has been downright awful over the course of his last 107.0 IP: 12.9-percent K rate, 8.52-percent BB rate, 1.68 HR/9 rate and a slate-worst 5.87 FIP. Sung Bum Na (NCD) is a clear cash game building block and guys like Min Woo Park (NCD) and Eu Ji Yang (NCD) are not far behind. Na was nearly 50-percent owned in high stakes contests last night in a lefty/lefty matchup so his ownership percentage could approach 60-70-percent tonight in this potential smash spot. If targeting the Dinos, fantasy owners will definitely want to try and target low-owned pitchers, otherwise a lineup could easily be duped.
Quietly, the Heroes have given the Wyverns a run for their money in teams of the league-worst K rate, but they are a dangerous offense when opposing starters fail to miss their bats. Unfortunately for Min Kim (KTW) and his 13.5-percent K rate dating back to 2018, he is likely to be pitching to contact. Byung Ho Park (KIW) has started the season slowly but has started the flash the power (three homers in five games) and him showing up to the 2020 season would be huge for the team’s prospects. The entire top five of the order is viable in a stack as Ha Seung Kim (KIW) and Jung Ho Lee (KIW) are viewed as two of the top MLB prospects in the entire KBO. Beyond those two, leadoff hitter Keon Chang Seo (KIW) is approaching a .400 average and Dong Won Park (KIW) is giving Yang a run for his money as top fantasy catcher. If looking for a clear single-entry alternative to the Dinos, look no further than this squad.
Look, the Doosan Bears are struggling, so now may be the time to buy on them, as they are unlikely to be held down for long. Jose Miguel Fernandez (DOO) is unlikely to ever come at a low ownership but Joo Hwan Choi (DOO) and Jae Won Oh (DOO) will because they both qualify at 2B. Each is still priced near the near minimum on DK so locking them into an infield position will allow fantasy owners to spend elsewhere. Most of the lineup is left-handed and will own the platoon edge versus Kyung Eun Noh (LOT) and his 1.16 HR/9 rate dating back to 2018.
Honorable Mention: Kia Tigers versus southpaw Woo Chan Cha (LG) even though the arguable two top hitters on the team are left-handed and will not have the platoon advantage.