JAY BRUCE, RICKIE WEEKS ARE NICE DAILY FANTASY PLAYS MONDAY
For Monday, July 8, there are 13 games in Major League Baseball. The Washington-Philadelphia (7:05pm ET - ESPN) is nationally televised. The Minnesota-Tampa Bay (7:10pm ET) game is available free at MLB.com.
The weather is typical for the summer, with a moderate chance of thunderstorms setting up for the eastern third of the United States. That's been the case over the past week or two due to a Bermuda High that is just parked over the western Atlantic Ocean, shuttling moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean from south to north. And don't look now, but there is Tropical Storm Chantal out in the ocean, and it could start to slide up the eastern seaboard and threaten games by the weekend.
*** WEATHER ALERT *** (DraftKings.com salaries in parentheses)
Washington at Philadelphia (7:00pm ET - 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms)
Texas at Baltimore (7:05pm ET - 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms)
Detroit at Cleveland (7:05pm ET - 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms)
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (7:05pm ET - 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms)
Oakland at Pittsburgh (7:05pm ET - 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms)
THESE 10 WILL BE PERFECT
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati ($3,800 at MIL): Bruce is 8-for-26 (.308) lifetime with three doubles, a triple, a homer, five RBI and a .973 OPS against Milwaukee Brewers SP Kyle Lohse ($8,600). I like those numbers, and the fact Bruce might be playing with a little edge after being snubbed for an All-Star bid.
Derek Holland, SP, Texas ($8,600 at BAL): Holland has posted tremendous numbers against the Orioles over the years, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts against the O's since the start of the 2010 season. He has 16 strikeouts over 19 innings during the span, and he hasn't yielded a homer. He has straightened himself out lately, too, after a couple of hiccups in mid-June. Holland is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his past two starts with a complete game, 17 strikeouts and just four walks.
Jeff Keppinger, 3B, Chicago White Sox ($3,600 vs. CHC): Keppinger is being counted upon for some heavy lifting with 1B Paul Konerko (back) on the 15-day disabled list. He could provide some oomph against Chicago Cubs SP Matt Garza ($9,400), as he is 5-for-8 (.625) with two doubles, three RBI and a 1.500 OPS against the Cubs' starter.
Jon Lester, SP, Boston ($7,900 at SEA): Lester is much more affordable than his counterpart, Seattle Mariners SP Felix Hernandez ($11,300), and historical trends are on Lester's side. The Red Sox have won nine of 12 overall, first off. They're also 37-17 in their past 54 starts by Lester when facing a team with a losing record, and 4-1 in Lester's past five against the M's. Conversely, the Mariners are 2-9 in King Felix's past 11 home starts, and 3-12 in his past 15 outings against teams with a winning record. During that stretch, the Mariners are 0-9 at Safeco Field against teams with a winning record.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota ($4,100 at TB): Morneau's power has gone away this season, but he could show a little muscle against Tampa Bay Rays SP Ramon Hernandez ($7,600). Against the former Fausto Carmona, the Canadian slugger is 8-for-29 (.276) with two doubles, two bombs, eight RBI and five walks over his career.
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Detroit ($3,200 at CLE): Peralta has managed a .438 career mark (7-for-16) against Cleveland Indians SP Scott Kazmir ($6,700), posting two doubles, two homers, four RBI, two walks and a 1.411 OPS against the veteran lefty. Peralta usually brings it against his old team, too.
Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit ($11,700 at CLE): Scherzer already has two wins against the Cleveland Indians this season, and the Tribe is batting a collective .132 against him this season. You'll see below that the 'avoid' list is littered with Cleveland players. If you can find the bread in your budget, Scherzer is a lock for good results.
Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta ($5,900 at MIA): Look, it's only four at-bats, but Upton has fared very well against Miami Marlins SP Kevin Slowey ($7,200). He is a perfect 4-for-4 with a double, homer, two RBI and a walk. Again, it's a small sample size, but hard to ignore, too.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee ($3,800 vs. CIN): Last time out, Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey ($8,700) tossed a no-hitter. If he is to duplicate the feat, and let's face it, that's not going to happen, he has to keep Weeks down. That's something he hasn't done very well in his career. Weeks is 11-for-24 (.458) with a double, two homers, seven RBI, four walks and a 1.302 OPS against Bailey over the years.
Jayson Werth, OF, Washington ($4,400 at PHI): Werth has enjoyed facing Philadelphia Phillies SP John Lannan ($5,700) over the years, going 9-for-27 (.333) with two doubles, four homers, seven RBI, four walks and a 1.271 OPS in his career against the crafty southpaw.
AVOID THIS DOZEN, COUSIN
Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati ($8,700 at MIL): I can say this with certainly - Bailey won't be anywhere near as good as his last outing. Of course, he had a no-hitter in his last appearance. He tries to duplicate former Reds SP Johnny Vander Meer as the only pitcher in Major League history to toss no-no's in back-to-back starts, but he won't. Last time out against Milwaukee, he allowed six runs, eight hits and a walk in seven innings in a loss June 15. Since the start of the 2010 season, Bailey is 1-4 witha 5.30 ERA in nine starts against the Brewers.
Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland ($3,500 vs. DET): Bourn hasn't done much of anything in his career against Detroit Tigers SP Max Scherzer ($11,700), going just 2-for-14 (.143) with no extra-base hits, no RBI, one walk and four strikeouts. That's good for a subpar .343 OPS. Avoid.
Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox ($4,100 vs. CHC): Dunn is just 1-for-10 (.100) with no extra-base hits, one RBI, two walks and eight strikeouts in his career versus Garza.
Roberto Hernandez, SP, Tampa Bay ($7,600 vs. MIN): Hernandez has plenty of history against the Minnesota Twins from his days with the Cleveland Indians, and most of the results are marginal. He is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in seven starts against the Twins since the start of the 2010 season, and Minnesota hit .274 against him during the span.
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington ($4,400 at PHI): LaRoche has had a devil of a time against the left-hander Lannan, going hitless in 12 career at-bats with no RBI, no walks and five strikeouts. It wouldn't be surprising to see manager Davey Johnson give LaRoche a breather on this day.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore ($3,900 vs. TEX): Hardy is one of a handful of Orioles who just haven't fared very well against Texas Rangers SP Derek Holland ($8,600). In fact, Hardy is hitless in seven career at-bats with two walks and two strikeouts in his career against Holland.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore ($5,000 vs. TEX): Jones is just 1-for-10 with no RBI, no walks and six strikeouts over his career against Holland. He had a dramatic ninth-inning two-run homer to win Sunday's game at N.Y. Yankees, but he should take a step back in this one.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland ($4,300 vs. DET): Kipnis was running hot before the current wraparound series against the Tigers, but he has cooled off significantly. He is just 2-for-11 with no extra-base hits, one run scored, no RBI and five strikeouts in the first three games. Against Scherzer, he is 3-for-17 (.176) with a double, RBI, two walks and five strikeouts for a .498 career OPS. It appears the cool streak continues today.
Mike Napoli, 1B/C, Boston ($3,900 at SEA): Plenty of Boston Red Sox actually have respectable numbers against King Felix. Napoli isn't one of them, going just 6-for-33 (.182) with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, six walks and 12 strikeouts. That's good for a mediocre .641 OPS.
Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Cleveland ($4,000 vs. DET): Reynolds has really scuffled lately, going hitless in 23 at-bats over the past seven games, dropping his batting average from .236 to a paltry .218 just since June 29. During the span, he has just one RBI, two walks and 11 strikeouts. He is unlikely to snap out against a guy like Scherzer, especially since he is hitless in 11 career at-bats with six strikeouts against the Tigers' hurler.
Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland ($ 4,100 vs. DET): Santana has managed just three hits in 25 career at-bats against Scherzer, posting a double, two RBI, five walks, three strikeouts and a dismal .427 OPS. He isn't worth the money.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore ($3,800 vs. TEX): Wieters is hitless in eight career at-bats with just one walk and a .111 OPS againt Holland. It woudn't be surprising to see manager Buck Showalter roll with C Taylor Teagarden ($3,100) based on those numbers.
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