3 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 1/19/21
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you’re looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
On a two-game slate, finding value can particularly challenging, but we’ll give it a go. Let’s take a look at three players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.
Lonzo Ball, PG, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,500)
Returning from injury, Ball seems to have a much more enticing salary than nearly any player on this slate. In fact, at $5,500, Lonzo is $800 cheaper than he’s been in any contest this season. If we assume that 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary is a good baseline value to look for, there’s a solid chance we’ll get that from Lonzo. On the season, Ball had amassed at least 29 FanDuel points in five of his nine games prior to his injury — he would need just 27.5 to return a 5.0 value figure.
numberFire’s model agrees with this assessment, projecting Ball for 29.2 fantasy points and a value figure of 5.31. Ball is the second-best point-per-dollar value on the entire slate.
Lu Dort, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder ($5,300)
This is a play that could backfire in a big way — our model projects Lu Dort for fewer than 20 FanDuel points — but you’re going to need to take a risk somewhere in order to differentiate on a two-game slate.
Al Horford (personal) is out tonight, which is music to Dort’s ears. According to RotoGrinders, in 119.4 minutes with Horford off the court this season, Dort has seen his usage rate go up by 4.5 percentage points while averaging an additional 0.20 FanDuel points per minute.
On the back of 21 real-life points and 6 steals, Dort exploded for 50.6 FanDuel points on Friday with Horford inactive. Expecting a repeat of that is not realistic, but the uptick in minutes and volume could be enough for Dort to churn out value for our lineups.
Isaiah Roby, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,500)
Isaiah Roby is another player who has benefitted from Horford’s absence this season. In Oklahoma City‘s three games sans Horford, Roby has put up 35.4, 25.8, and 23.3 FanDuel points while seeing an average of 26 minutes of action.
Roby is the direct beneficiary of Horford being out of the lineup, as he has yet to share the court with the 34-year-old for a single minute this season.
Given that the Roby might be the closest thing the Thunder have to resemble a true center for tonight’s game, Roby should see plenty of action against Nikola Jokic. At a salary of $4,500, Roby would need just 22.5 fantasy points to return a value figure of 5.0. That’s more than attainable.
For many of the same reasons, Darius Bazley ($5,200) is also worthy of consideration.