4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 13
Fantasy value doesn’t have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player’s total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player’s output per $1,000 in salary — in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We’re here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let’s see who you should be fitting into your Week 13 lineups.
Colt McCoy, QB, New York Giants
DraftKings Price: $4,800
Projected Points: 14.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.10
After suffering an injury in Sunday’s game, Daniel Jones is expected to miss time, and his lack of activity in practice has confirmed that. And that will lead to a start or two for veteran Colt McCoy, who has not started a game since Week 5 of last season. He had a rough go of it in a blowout loss to an elite New England Patriots defense, but for the most part he has been a middle-of-the-road starter.
Two years ago, the 34-year-old started two games for what now is the Washington Football Team, throwing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first and exiting the second due to injury. Over his years in Washington and Cleveland, he’s never been blessed with big-time talent around him, though he will now have a few good options in Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram.
The matchup with Seattle is what makes him so appealing, though, at his low price point. The Seahawks have allowed fewer than 248 passing yards just once this season, compared to six in which they have been hit up for 300 or more. All McCoy needs is 9.6 points for two-times value and 14.4 for three-times value. A hair above 250 yards and a score will be enough to get the job done and let you pay up elsewhere.
Frank Gore, RB, New York Jets
DraftKings Price: $4,400
Projected Points: 10.0
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.27
The New York Jets have an implied total under 20 points, as they are 7.5-point underdogs to the visiting Las Vegas Raiders. That does not bode well for an offensive breakout, but there is some hope after Las Vegas gave up 125 rushing yards and 43 points to the Atlanta Falcons, who were without the services of Todd Gurley. Las Vegas is 31st against the run, according to our metrics.
Frank Gore is not a ceiling play. He’s a guy you can look to in order to round out your tournament lineup, or fit into a cash lineup because of his solid floor. The long-time veteran has six games of 15-plus combined carries and targets. Over the last three, he has no fewer than 14, including back-to-back games of 15 and 18 carries.
With La’Mical Perine injured and now out, Gore has accounted for 157 total yards and a score over the last two. All other Jets backs have combined for 11 carries and 37 rushing yards over that span. You could do a lot worse than a solid workload and role from Gore.
Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Jets
DraftKings Price: $3,900 Projected Points: 10.7 Projected Value: 2.74
Projected Points: 10.7
Projected Value: 2.74
Back-to-back Jets? Yes, it’s gross, but somebody has to pad the stats in these losing efforts. In the passing game, both Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman have been productive of late, and the more experienced Perriman is the cheaper of the two.
Perriman’s recent stat lines do not reflect his low price on DraftKings. After hauling in 5 of 7 targets for 30.1 DraftKings points in Week 9, he followed that up with 13.4 and 11.9 points in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively. Per Jim Sannes, he’s done so on a very respectable 24.1% target share.
A matchup with a Raiders team surrendering 39.1 DK points to receivers could pay off big if Perriman is able to reach the end zone once or twice in Week 13.
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers
DraftKings Price: $3,700 Projected Points: 7.4 Projected Value: 2.00
Projected Points: 7.4
Projected Value: 2.00
It would appear that those people creating player salaries have not seen the Green Bay Packers play. Not only is their offense the second-best passing offense in the league — with Aaron Rodgers at the helm — but Robert Tonyan has emerged as a true weapon at the tight end spot.
After going scoreless in his five games following a three-touchdown performance, the third-year pro has bounced back with a score in back-to-back outings. He’s also brought in 10 of 10 targets for 111 yards, which is even more telling against the likes of the Indianapolis and Chicago defenses. The Philadelphia Eagles are nowhere near their class.
Philly is 15th against the pass and has allowed a 22.6% target share to tight ends, according to JJ Zachariason. That, combined with a 27.75 implied total, creates a juicy opportunity for Tonyan.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.