4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 7
Fantasy value doesn’t have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player’s total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player’s output per $1,000 in salary — in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We’re here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let’s see who you should be fitting into your Week 7 lineups.
Kyle Allen, QB, Washington Football Team
DraftKings Price: $5,200 Projected Points: 14.9 Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.86
Projected Points: 14.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.86
Outside of the likes of Seattle and Atlanta, Dallas is up for the next line of defenses to target in daily fantasy — primarily through the air. The Cowboys’ defensive unit has allowed at least 267 passing yards in three of six games while they have given up 14 touchdowns to just a single interception. Per Pro Football Reference, they rank in the top-10 in DraftKings points allowed to opposing signal-callers, and that’s despite two of their last three games calling for their opponent to play from positive game script.
The Washington Football Team is expected to be playing from ahead, but definitely not to the point where they would just sit on the ball and run it. They are favored by one point with a 23.5-point implied total, marking a 5.5-point improvement over their season average to date. The neutral script and positive matchup should do wonders for Kyle Allen‘s ability to produce fantasy numbers from under center.
It’s really a mere boost to Allen’s appeal, as he is fresh off a game in which he passed 42 times to the tune of 280 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 18 DK points. He was dinged with a couple of turnovers, yes, but his team is expected to score four more points than they did against the New York Giants‘ more stingy defense. Dallas shouldn’t keep him from hitting and surpassing his projected output.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings Price: $4,800 Projected Points: 13.6 Projected Value: 2.83
Projected Points: 13.6
Projected Value: 2.83
As the no-brainer play of the week, Kenyan Drake benefits from the Monday Night Football bump in that he was priced prior to his Week 6 performance. The thing is, Drake didn’t just break out from his early-season slump — he went absolutely bonkers, running for 164 yards and a pair of scores on 20 carries. He also saw a pair of targets (no catches) and was in on 68% of the team’s offensive plays. His involvement has been nothing short of consistent, having played no fewer than 65% of snaps but no more than 71% through six weeks.
Again, with all that being said Drake’s price has remained unchanged. He is $100 cheaper than backfield mate Chase Edmonds and right there with guys — Latavius Murray and Adrian Peterson — that are the lesser options in their timeshares.
The matchup is nothing to scoff at, either. The Seahawks are undoubtedly awful against the pass, but their rush defense is not a stay-away spot. They rank eighth by our math, but they are also ninth in time leading, according to Football Outsiders. When they came from behind against Minnesota in Week 5 the Vikings had managed more than 200 yards and nearly 5 yards a carry on the ground. In a game with the second-largest over/under (55.5), and a slim 3.5-point spread the Cardinals should bring a balanced approach on the offensive side, leading to a big day for Drake.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings Price: $4,200 Projected Points: 10.7 Projected Value: 2.56
Projected Points: 10.7
Projected Value: 2.56
Diontae Johnson has been off the field almost as much as he has been on it so far this season. After playing 86% and 83% of snaps in Week 1 and 2, injuries have caused him to miss one full game and parts of two more (not to mention an unexpected bye week) since his hot start. And that’s what it was — a hot start that we are all seemingly forgetting.
Through two games Johnson looked like the alpha of the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ pass offense. He garnered a team-high 23 targets and converted them into 14 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. He averaged nearly 17 DK points per game in that span, but with him unavailable of late DraftKings has dropped his tag from $5,600 to only $4,200 some week-and-a-half later. Chase Claypool has risen his big play to a $1,500 edge over Johnson, but you can feel good with taking the savings for a player with just as much upside in the same offense.
Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense is on the road in Tennessee for their previously scheduled meeting, and while the Titans have impressed so far they are narrowly favored this week. That, in addition to being the 28th-rated team against WR2’s, has Johnson set up for success as long as he remains on track to play come Sunday.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Price: $3,900 Projected Points: 5.7 Projected Value: 1.47
Projected Points: 5.7
Projected Value: 1.47
Between a potential punt play in Anthony Firkser and the likes of top dogs George Kittle and Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz could get lost in the middle of the tight end price range. He’s a perfect tournament play to target with so many down on not only him, but Andy Dalton and the overall Dallas offense. His Cowboys are on the road against Washington, and while the Football Team ranks 7th against the rush they are a mere 18th against the pass. They are also 28th against TE1’s and have allowed a juicy 29% target share to the position, according to JJ Zachariason.
And don’t forget that with Washington favored Dallas could be forced to go to the air, much like they did in their blowout against Arizona. Ya know, when Dalton threw the ball more than 50 times. Schultz had 4 catches, 35 yards, and 7.5 DK points on the 5 targets he saw from the Cowboys’ new starting quarterback. It wasn’t the big double-digit you’d like to see, but with the disappointment has brought a price reduction of another $400 from a week ago. Go elsewhere in cash, but realize the upside for your tournament and GPP lineups.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.