4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 9
Fantasy value doesn’t have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player’s total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player’s output per $1,000 in salary — in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We’re here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let’s see who you should be fitting into your Week 9 lineups.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
DraftKings Price: $5,700 Projected Points: 19.1 Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.36
Projected Points: 19.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.36
Here is to the second time being the charm for Derek Carr. Last week, after being listed in this article, the Las Vegas Raiders‘ signal-caller was limited to 12.6 DraftKings points in a game in which his team was limited through the air by some high winds and poor game script. The low-scoring win held Carr below 20 DK points for the first time since Week 3, so there are a lot of positives to his fantasy game.
Somewhat surprisingly, Carr has been among the top 12 quarterbacks in our Net Expected Points per drop back and Passing Success Rate metrics. He’s been very good with Darren Waller, along with the combo of Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs doing work on the outside. On the year, Carr has had at least two touchdowns in all but two games while he has thrown for 300 yards — getting you that nice bonus — two times in the last four.
The matchup is no turn-off, either. The Los Angeles Chargers are solid, but they just traded Desmond King and rate 22nd against opposing quarterbacks through the first eight weeks. Our models have Carr as the third-best overall value on the slate.
Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $4,000 Projected Points: 8.3 Projected Value: 2.07
Projected Points: 8.3
Projected Value: 2.07
Injuries are wreaking havoc but opening up opportunities in a number of backfields, and the Miami Dolphins are no exception. This week, it was announced that workhorse Myles Gaskin would be sidelined three weeks, leaving work for Matt Breida and others. But it’s shaping up to be Breida’s job in the short-term.
Miami traded for DeAndre Washington on Tuesday, though it would seem unlikely he is cleared through COVID-19 protocols to play this week. Our projections have incorporated his slight usage (3.5 total opportunities), as well as eight carries for the seldom-used Jordan Howard. While we could see Howard get a couple carries, Breida is the only three-down back that Miami should rely on with Tua Tagovailoa so fresh to the pro game.
That being said, it would be wise for the Dolphins to lean more heavily on the run than the pass. By our math, Arizona is 18th against the run compared to 13th against the pass. They’re led by an opportunistic secondary featuring the likes of Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker, so why throw the rookie in the fire. I would expect Breida to blow past this projection in the absence of any notable competition.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Price: $4,700 Projected Points: 11.2 Projected Value: 2.39
Projected Points: 11.2
Projected Value: 2.39
In Week 8, just over 20 players received double-digit targets, including a number of usual suspects in Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, and Keenan Allen. But also on that list is rookie Jerry Jeudy, who saw 10 targets from Drew Lock but turned them into only four catches for a total of 11.3 DK points. We can chalk the missed opportunities up to a few things, but there are positives to note, starting with his first double-digit fantasy performance in three weeks.
Jeudy is also healthy, involved, and could again be the only go-to receiver if Tim Patrick — limited in practice — is out once again. The disappointing theme for the highly-touted prospect has been under-producing, having never eclipsed 14.1 DK points despite two weeks of 16.8 expected fantasy points, per DynastyProcess.com. On the other hand, he’s due for a breakout, and it could come this week.
The Denver Broncos are on the road in the dome against the Atlanta Falcons, who check in 32nd against the pass and, according to our advanced stats, have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to WR2’s. A 23.25 implied total only boosts Jeudy’s upside against this very weak secondary.
Jordan Akins, TE, Houston Texans
DraftKings Price: $3,300 Projected Points: 6.5 Projected Value: 1.97
Projected Points: 6.5
Projected Value: 1.97
The Houston Texans‘ tight end game is never fun to try and predict. Woven throughout weeks of no production, both Jordan Akins and Darren Fells have had their own fantasy-relevant performances. Of late, it has been Fells getting most of the work with Akins sidelined for the past three weeks. However, Akins is back at practice and appears on track to return against the host Jaguars.
Prior to his Week 4 injury, Akins was a full-time player opposite Deshaun Watson. In his three healthy games, he logged no fewer than 68% of snaps, according to Pro Football Reference. He was over 80% in the first two weeks, hauling in all 9 of his targets for 94 yards and one score in that span. If Akins picks back up with that type of usage he is a sneaky low-floor, high-ceiling play in tournaments.
The Jags are 27th against tight ends and, per JJ Zachariason, they are tied for dead last in touchdowns per game allowed to the position. The fact that the Texans are expected to score nearly five more points than their season average bodes well for Akins’ chances at a score.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.