What’s better than Fantasy Football hindsight?
Well, Fantasy Football foresight, for one, but that’s the point! Let’s use our hindsight to help us focus our foresight better!
We all know it’s close to impossible for Fantasy owners to have a perfect draft, pick all great players, avoid busts with early picks and collect nothing but great sleepers with late picks. But next year, it’s going to be different for all of us!
7 Stupid Fantasy Football Moves From the 2017 NFL Season
Our goal should be to use this information to help us in the 2018 Fantasy Football season! We use the 2017 ADP over at FantasyFootballCalculator.com, and the Fantasy stats over at ProFootballReference.com.
Stupid Thing No. 1: Wasting a Sleeper Pick on an Old Guy
Both Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles turned into wasted picks, in spite of a little resurrection from A.P. at one point, but we should’ve known better. Sure, there are your Fred Jacksons and your Frank Gores once in a while, but those guys are few and far between. Of the top 30 running backs in 2017, 21 of them entered the NFL after 2012.
This is a nice warning for those looking at LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch, all of whom will be over 29 years old.
Stupid Thing No. 2: Avoiding All Injury Risks
Sure, you are usually smart for avoiding chronic injury guys like Jordan Reed and Kelvin Benjamin, but what about players like Keenan Allen, Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz? Gronk was the only one out of those three that truly needed great faith as a high pick, but Allen was a great third-rounder and Ertz was a steal in Round 8.
With players like David Johnson (wrist), Dalvin Cook (knee) and DeShaun Watson (knee) coming back from injury, maybe we should target them based on their talent, as opposed to frailty.
Stupid Thing No. 3: Not Loading Up On Young Running Backs
We’ve already mentioned how we wasted sleeper picks on old guys, but what about leaning hard on young running backs, specifically, rookies? Of the top-50 running backs in Fantasy scoring, THIRTEEN of them were rookies! That’s one of the best rookie classes ever, and we may look back in five years and decide it was even better than the insanely good 2008 class that had Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden, and several more.
Consider that this class was this amazing – and it lost Dalvin Cook early! The NFL appears to be leaning toward younger running backs, and they’re going through them at a quicker pace. Alvin Kamara might be the greatest 13th-round Fantasy pick in the past 10 years!
Stupid Thing No. 4: Thinking DeMarco Murray Had Another Good Year In Him
Those that took a chance on him in 2016, after a bust 2015 in Philly, were rewarded with a great season when many expected another stinker. Well, we pushed our luck in 2017, as Murray busted again, and will likely be replaced for good by Derrick Henry next season.
The lesson learned here might be that a player that busts one year and rebounds the next could still have another bust year waiting for him. Beware Dion Lewis drafters of 2018!
Stupid Thing No. 5: Not Picking Up Either Alvin Kamara Before Week 5
To quote the great American poet, Cher, “If I could turn back time!” We’d go back and grab Kamara in every league in Week 4, and laugh our way to championship titles! But we didn’t. It’s tough to argue with why we didn’t own him, considering the Saints had Mark Ingram starting and Adrian Peterson as his disgruntled backup. Once they traded Peterson, the smart ones grabbed Kamara and the rest is history.
Next year, we’re going to have to keep our eyes out for those rosters overstuffed with RBs, including a rookie we know has talent in the passing game.
With 79% of the votes from fans, and majority vote from FNTSY & @RotoExperts, #Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been named the 2017 Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year! Congrats @A_Kamara6! RT if you owned him! #FNTSYawards pic.twitter.com/7Q03YrKgKj
— FNTSY Sports Network (@FNTSYSportsNet) January 6, 2018
Stupid Thing No. 6: Believing the Hype on The Wrong Young QBs
Before the season started, third-year quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were inching up the draft boards, with promising seasons lying ahead. Winston’s owners were especially excited about an offense that added DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, who was considered the best TE in the NFL Draft. But nonetheless, both quarterbacks struggled at different points, and 2016 NFL Draft QBs Carson Wentz and Jared Goff turned into promising Fantasy players.
The hype on both Wentz and Goff will be similar to what we saw for Mariota and Winston, so let’s learn a lesson from this! If the Bears make some good offseason moves, maybe Mitch Trubisky takes the next step?
Stupid Thing No. 7: Drafting a Patriots Running Back
Remember when the Fantasy Football world was going nuts over the Patriots’ signing of Mike Gillislee? With LeGarrette Blount out of town, and Gillislee’s ability to break tackles, he was assured of scoring 43 touchdowns in 2017. In the end, per usual, Bill Belichick continued to ruin Fantasy owners’ rosters by mixing and matching his RBs through most of the season before settling on Dion Lewis.
The lesson learned is – don’t fall into the trap and draft Lewis early next year!
Featured AP Photo Credit: Reed Hoffmann