Fandex NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Buys
It’s the Elite Eight, and we’re ready for more price movements on the Fandex sports exchange. There are a couple of #1 seeds whose Fandex price does not yet reflect the dominance they have exerted on their opponents.
These are the teams to buy on Fandex in the Elite Eight!
Fandex Price: 16.81
Predicted Win Total: 2.84
Since the start of the Sweet 16, the Baylor Bears Fandex price has climbed up to 16.81 from a previous high of 13.84. Getting past the Villanova Wildcats wasn’t as easy as the Bears may have hoped, but the Bears have several advantages over the Arkansas Razorbacks that should help their Fandex price climb even further.
Arkansas narrowly avoided getting upset by Oral Roberts Golden Eagles in the Sweet 16, and the next task of getting past the Bears is an even bigger hurdle. According to KenPom, the Golden Eagles had the 60th-ranked offense when adjusted for opponent and the 220th-ranked defense. That’s a huge drop off from the Bears’ respective rankings of third and 27th. This is a jump in class that the Razorbacks aren’t ready for.
How these teams score is yet another detriment to the Razorbacks. 47.1% of Arkansas’ points are coming from in the paint, indicating a high reliance on two-point shots. Baylor is the best shooting team from beyond the arc this season and is getting 36.5% of its points from threes. Arkansas can’t get buy on trading twos for threes and expect to compete. Improving on their 189th-ranked three-point shooting is too tall of an ask for Arkansas.
The Razorbacks are middle of the pack when it comes to limiting opponents from three this season. Worse, opponents are hitting 38.5% of threes since the tournament started, up from their season average of 33.2%. This is the Elite Eight, and diminishing defensive metrics aren’t going to cut it. Baylor wins, and the Fandex price climbs.
Fandex Price: 16.97
Predicted Win Total
Predicted Win Total: 2.33
We’re highlighting another #1 seed with a favorable matchup in the Elite Eight. This one will probably be closer than most people are anticipating, but everything UCLA does well, Michigan does a little better.
The UCLA Bruins have launched themselves into the Elite Eight on the strength of their three-point shooting. The Bruins have made 40.0% of their three-pointers since their play-in game. Their shooting percentage from beyond the arc has decreased over the last couple of games, dropping to 35.4%, as they faced stiffer defensive challenges.
The Michigan Wolverines just spent the entire season playing defense-first ball in the Big Ten and have stopped better shooting teams than the Bruins. Over their last two tournament games, the Wolverines limited the LSU Tigers and Florida State Seminoles to 28.6% and 25.5% three-point shooting respectively.
Michigan’s strength is also shooting from three, and they’ve been more effective than the Bruins this season. The Wolverines had the 11th-ranked three-point shooting percentage this season at 38.5%, above the Bruins’ 37.4%.
The Bruins will be Exhibit A for years to come on when to foul. The Bruins were up three points with seconds to go, allowed the inbounds and two passes before Alex Reese made a three-point shot, and sent the game to overtime. We know how the story ends, but the Bruins can’t expect to get by on the skin of their teeth, making those types of mistakes against a top-four team in the country.
After starting the tournament hot, UCLA has been trending downwards over their last couple of games. Michigan has unceremoniously dispatched all of their opponents with efficient offensive performances and not allowing them to get going from three. Michigan’s Fandex price will increase after yet another drudging of their opponent.