FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/6/21
Following a shallow pitching slate on Monday that only had a handful of viable options, we see some rotations flip back to their number one starters on Tuesday, giving us more legit aces to choose from.
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Let’s check out the top options on Tuesday’s eight-game main slate, which locks at 7:05 pm ET.
Lucas Giolito ($9,600): The Chicago White Sox ace picked up right where he left off in his 2021 debut against the Los Angeles Angels, striking out 8 batters in 5.1 innings with a whopping 19.5% swinging-strike rate. The only thing that prevented him from racking up more FanDuel points was getting the hook at 87 pitches, but cautious workloads haven’t been uncommon across the league in the early going. Punchouts shouldn’t be a problem against a Mariners team that owns a 26.2% strikeout rate versus righties dating back to 2019.
Tyler Glasnow ($10,700): While the Tampa Bay Rays only let Tyler Glasnow go 77 pitches in his opening start, he still got through six scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that pitch count see a bump tonight, which was how the Rays played things last year. The Boston Red Sox aren’t necessarily a plus matchup, but Glasnow’s peripherals have been lights out since the start of 2019, and he posted a dazzling 38.2% strikeout rate over 11 starts last season. If you trust Tampa Bay won’t baby him as much tonight, he’s an intriguing tournament play, as he’ll likely see a lower roster percentage than Giolito, Yu Darvish, and maybe even Clayton Kershaw — particularly at his slate-high salary.
Freddy Peralta ($6,400): Chances are I will stick with Giolito, Glasnow, and Darvish at pitcher, but hopping down to Freddy Peralta isn’t totally crazy if you’re looking for a contrarian roster build. Peralta’s first appearance came in relief, and he stuck out 6 guys in just 2.0 innings. The bad news? He also walked 3 batters and needed 53 pitches to get there. That’s Freddy Peralta for you. He’s bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen since debuting in 2018, most recently tallying a 32.0% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate over the last two campaigns. He has potential against the Cubs, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on a short leash.
Others to Consider: Yu Darvish ($10,200), Clayton Kershaw ($9,000), James Paxton ($8,500)
Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks: As of this writing, tonight’s Coors Field combatants are the only two teams exceeding five runs in their implied totals. It’s worth noting that there’s a chance of rain, but this game is trending towards playing.
Luke Weaver is the visiting pitcher, and while he isn’t a bad strikeout arm (23.3% in 2020 and 26.5% in 2019), he produced a mediocre 4.52 SIERA last season and doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, making him more susceptible to the confines of Coors.
Trevor Story ($4,100), C.J. Cron ($4,000), and Charlie Blackmon ($3,900) are the high-salaried standouts, but the rest of the lineup should be easier to fit in. From a power perspective, Ryan McMahon ($3,500) is one of the better sub-$4,000 options and will have the platoon advantage.
German Marquez really struggled with his control in his 2021 debut (six walks in four innings) and was lucky to mostly get away unscathed, but he ought to be better moving forward. Still, he’s never shown a high strikeout rate versus left-handed batters (20.5% of the last two seasons), so Ketel Marte ($4,500), David Peralta ($3,400), and Eduardo Escobar ($3,200) are some guys to consider. Josh Rojas ($3,000) is a great value if he’s batting leadoff.
Christian Walker ($3,500) might be the lone right-handed bat in the entire lineup, but he belongs in the conversation as someone who makes a lot of hard contact.
Toronto Blue Jays: Following the Coors game, the Blue Jays have the third-best implied total, and their salaries are actually quite low.
Right-hander Dane Dunning will start the game, but left-hander Wes Benjamin is expected to follow him as a “tandem,” so this probably isn’t a spot to get too bogged down with individual matchups — just soak up the value of a deep lineup. Dunning was weaker versus lefties in a small sample last year (5.37 xFIP), while Benjamin wasn’t especially effective against both sides of the plate.
You can arguably stack most of this lineup, and all of the following players are at salaried of $3,000 and below: Cavan Biggio ($2,700), Bo Bichette ($3,000), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,000), Randal Grichuk ($2,700), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,300), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,200).
New York Mets: Right-hander Chase Anderson has generally shown mediocre-to-poor splits against lefties and righties alike, and it’s actually the righty sticks who typically hit the home runs, allowing over two per nine innings in same-sided matchups dating back to 2018. That’s good news for Pete Alonso ($3,700), of course, and then we find a lot of value in New York’s lefties between Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), Michael Conforto ($3,200), and Dominic Smith ($3,100).