League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 15th (2:00 AM ET Slate)
Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.
-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.
-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.
-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.
-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?
League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds
Edward Gaming (-275) vs. Oh My God (+218)
Dominus Esports (+315) vs. Royal Never Give Up (-414)
Invictus Gaming (-425) vs. Team WE (+322)
Gen.G (-233) vs. KT Rolster (+187)
Afreeca Freecs (+381) vs. T1 (-515)
DAMWON Gaming (-293) vs. SANDBOX Gaming (+231)
TheShy – Leyan – Rookie – Puff – Southwind
Morgan – beishang – Teacherma – Jiumeng – Missing
Natural – Xiaopeng – xiye – GALA – Mark
Royal Never Give Up
Langx – XLB – Xiaohu – Betty – Ming
Jinoo – Jiejie – Scout – Hope – Meiko
Oh My God
Curse – H4cker – icon – Smlz – cold
The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk
Invictus Gaming (-425) are the deserving top plays in this six game slate. They’ve won 71% of their games this season, which is the best winning rate in the LPL this season, and are averaging 17 kills per game (second best mark in the league). Team WE is an average team but they’re also a team that pushes the pace. This spring season, Team WE is averaging 14.4 kills per game – the fourth best mark in the LPL. TheShy, Invictus Gaming’s TOP player, can be rostered at a captain price of $9,900 on DraftKings. He gives you access to a four man Invictus Gaming stack, building around their best scorers, Puff (ADC), Rookie (MID) and one of Southwind (SUP) or Leyan (JNG). Target this team with confidence.
The next in line plays at the position are Royal Never Give Up (-414) and T1 (-515). RNG is certainly priced up for being the third highest favorite on the board. Like Invictus Gaming though, you’re able to run a strong four man stack by using their TOP player (LangX) at captain. They’re taking on a below average team in Dominus Esports that’s averaging 13.4 deaths per game. Ultimately it’s the strength of their skill and quality of scorers that win out over the strength of matchup.
All things considered, T1 provides the best value of all of the top plays. T1 is the highest favorite on the board today and relative to their league they have an even better matchup. Afreeca Freecs is averaging 12.8 deaths per game – the third worst mark in the LCK. T1 is averaging 11.7 kills per game, which is good for the third best mark in the LCK this season. The one strong argument that you can make for RNG over T1 is that the former simply scores better, specifically in wins. RNG has multiple players that have generated 90+ DraftKings points in wins this season. Meanwhile, T1 only has one player (Teddy – ADC) that’s demonstrated that sort of upside this season. I still think T1 is a bit undervalued here but given the scoring discrepancies, it makes sense why they’re priced comfortably below RNG today.
Edward Gaming (-275) has the weakest matchup of the favorites in action today. Oh My God is an average team at best but they don’t push pace of play and are only averaging 11.6 deaths per game in the LPL this season. Hope (ADC) is arguably the top scorer available in this slate but he’s priced fully for it. Edward Gaming’s ownership is likely going to fall behind the top teams above, which makes them intriguing leverage plays in tournaments.
Gen.G (-233) are likely the top values on the board today. This is one of the lone LCK teams that have multiple players on their roster that carry 90-100 DraftKings points upside when their team wins. Their matchup against KT Rolster is as unexciting as it can get as they’re only averaging 9.4 kills per game and 9 deaths per game this season. They’re likely priced correctly relative to their odds but the price tags aren’t fully reflecting their scoring prowess.
DAMWON Gaming (-293) is a less dominant team in the LCK – they’ve won 50% of their games this season. However, they’re averaging 11.5 kills per game, which is good for the fourth best mark in the league. This is another team that when things go right in wins, Ghost (ADC) and Nuclear (MID) have 100+ DraftKings points upside in their range of outcomes. Their opponent, SANDBOX Gaming, are averaging 11.7 deaths per game this season. This is a stronger scoring matchup than KT Rolster. Whether you have Gen.G or DAMWON Gaming at the very top of your value list today is mostly irrelevant, as it’s clear that both of these LCK teams should be viewed as the best values on the board relative to their scoring.
The underdog with the best scoring matchup is easily Team WE (+322). While Invictus Gaming are averaging 17 kills per game, they’ve also averaged 15.8 deaths per game (third worst mark in the league). Team WE players aren’t priced down enough relative to their odds, but that can be explained by their ability to score so well. In fact, their odds to win today aren’t great but if they can keep this game competitive, 80-100 DraftKings points out of their best players (Teacherma, Jiumeng) is in the range of outcomes even in a loss.
We’ll be back next week with more video content! Stay tuned.