Throughout the NFL Preseason, as you prepare for your Fantasy drafts, you are likely always hearing about being Fantasy Football risk averse and trying to avoid making huge mistakes in your drafts. As a matter of fact, I’m one of those guys that will tell you that from time to time – let other people make those big draft mistakes.
But today, I’m flipping it on its head, and I’m telling those owners in smaller Fantasy leagues – lean into the risk! Take chances in chunks!
If you’re in an eight- or 10-team league, most of the teams in that league are going to be well-stocked with stars and solid Fantasy players. It will take some big injuries and some major sleepers picked up late to really separate a team from the pack.
So this once, we’re recommending an experiment in throwing caution to the wind and taking some huge risks in order to win your 10-team or less league. This isn’t to say you should pick a kicker in Round 4, or draft five quarterbacks, but it’s meant to help you understand the risks you can take and how you can recover from them if they don’t pan out.
7 Ways To Lean Into Fantasy Football Risk In Smaller Leagues
When we refer to Average Draft Positions, we’re using ADP for non-PPR leagues from FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
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First-Rounder is Still a Safe Zone
Don’t fool around with your first- or second-round picks. This isn’t the spot to make crazy risky moves. Pick the best available player, whether it’s a running back or wide receiver, and move forward. (Keep away from a QB or TE this early.)
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Bob Leverone
Gronk, Zeke or Rodgers is an Option in Round 3
Once you get into those early middle rounds (Rounds 3, 4 and 5), you can start taking some calculated risks. If Aaron Rodgers or Rob Gronkowski are available, snatch them up. You will already have a top-10 RB and/or WR on your team, and if either the TE or QB busts, you can recover more quickly in these small leagues because both positions are generally about 15-players deep. You’ll be able to pick up a good player off waivers if need me.
As far as Ezekiel Elliott goes, a player that’s staring at a six-game suspension (possibly smaller depending on his appeal), with a Week 8 return (including the Cowboys’ bye week), drafting him in Round 3 or 4 is one of your biggest risks of the draft. But we’re going to explain how to mitigate that risk!
A healthy, unsuspended Zeke is a top-three Fantasy player, no matter how you slice it. Come Week 8, you’ll be adding a top-three Fantasy player to your 3-5 or 4-4 team (at worst). This will bolster your club for the playoff run, and give you a huge trade chip, whether it’s Zeke or the running back he’s replacing in your lineup.
The key to this is you also MUST draft Darren McFadden in Round 6. Run DMC should provide top-25 Fantasy RB ability behind the best offensive line in the NFL, and once Zeke returns, you can cut McFadden for a roster spot. If handled properly, this is a risk worth taking.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mary Schwalm
Draft Injury Risks Like Jordan Reed & Sammy Watkins
Both of these players are going to come to you at a great discount because of their injury history. It’s quite possible that these picks will bite you in the butt once they get injured, but your gamble is that they’ll get hurt later in the season, providing you several weeks of above-average Fantasy points per game in that lineup slot. Once they go down, you should likely be able to replace them with good players available on a well-stocked waiver wire, since there are just eight or 10 teams playing.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark Tenally
Draft Your Defense and Kicker Earlier Than Everyone Else
It’s crazy talk, I know. But this is you playing risky! Take the Broncos, Texans, Chiefs or Seahawks defense in Rounds 9 or 10, just before everyone else starts piling on. Then once they get in on it, you’ll likely have a chance at the same sleeper you were going to take anyway.
As far as kickers go, there are only a few you should reach for in this gameplan – Matt Bryant, Stephen Gostkowski and Justin Tucker. Grab them a round or two before the final round of your draft, when all the other teams will draft kickers, and it could result in a 2-3 points per game weekly boost for your lineup.
Unfortunately, kickers are volatile and this boost isn’t guaranteed, which is why it’s risky!
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Draft Falling Duds Like Andrew Luck & Cam Newton
While everyone else is running for the hills trying to avoid possible Fantasy disasters like Luck and Newton, these are two players that were the No. 1 Fantasy quarterbacks in 2014 and 2015 respectively. True, injuries have affected them and they might not pan out this year, but by drafting one (or heck, both) of these players, you could end up with one of the cheapest superstars in the game. If they don’t pan out, you dip into the super deep QB pool for a player like Matthew Stafford or Dak Prescott.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/John Raoux
Take More Chances On Rookie Running Backs Than Normal
Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen a couple sleeper rookie running backs find their way to become Fantasy Football studs: David Johnson and Jordan Howard. Those two guys were late-rounders in their respective years, and we think there’s a good chance of that happening again as teams continue to wait in the NFL Draft on running backs.
Rather than drafting a veteran like Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Hill or Jamaal Charles, who has talent but limited upside, consider drafting rookie running backs in that same area. You can lock up players like Samaje Perine, Jamaal Williams, Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, Jonathan Williams and D’Onta Foreman and increase your chances at a home run, rather than a slap single.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Fred Vuich
Try To Trade Down For More Draft Picks
Yes, everyone gets superstars in these smaller leagues, but if you can turn a superstar into two solid players for your lineup, you can then take more chances with your later picks. If you take your second-round pick and trade it for a fourth- and a fifth-round pick, you gave up a top-20 player to add two top-50 players. That’s a win for you.
In larger leagues, the team that gets the best player usually wins these types of trades, but in smaller leagues, when the difference between a second- and a fourth-rounder is smaller than in big leagues, plus you get to add a fifth-rounder, then you’re golden!
If you can trade the 18th pick (Dez Bryant or Leonard Fournette) for the 35th (Keenan Allen or Joe Mixon) and 45th picks (Kelvin Benjamin or C.J. Anderson), you should make that move.
You can use FootballGuys.com’s Draft Pick Value Calculator to find good values in pick trades.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark J. TerrillRelated Slideshow
First-Rounder is Still a Safe Zone
Don’t fool around with your first- or second-round picks. This isn’t the spot to make crazy risky moves. Pick the best available player, whether it’s a running back or wide receiver, and move forward. (Keep away from a QB or TE this early.)
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Bob Leverone
Gronk, Zeke or Rodgers is an Option in Round 3
Once you get into those early middle rounds (Rounds 3, 4 and 5), you can start taking some calculated risks. If Aaron Rodgers or Rob Gronkowski are available, snatch them up. You will already have a top-10 RB and/or WR on your team, and if either the TE or QB busts, you can recover more quickly in these small leagues because both positions are generally about 15-players deep. You’ll be able to pick up a good player off waivers if need me.
As far as Ezekiel Elliott goes, a player that’s staring at a six-game suspension (possibly smaller depending on his appeal), with a Week 8 return (including the Cowboys’ bye week), drafting him in Round 3 or 4 is one of your biggest risks of the draft. But we’re going to explain how to mitigate that risk!
A healthy, unsuspended Zeke is a top-three Fantasy player, no matter how you slice it. Come Week 8, you’ll be adding a top-three Fantasy player to your 3-5 or 4-4 team (at worst). This will bolster your club for the playoff run, and give you a huge trade chip, whether it’s Zeke or the running back he’s replacing in your lineup.
The key to this is you also MUST draft Darren McFadden in Round 6. Run DMC should provide top-25 Fantasy RB ability behind the best offensive line in the NFL, and once Zeke returns, you can cut McFadden for a roster spot. If handled properly, this is a risk worth taking.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mary Schwalm
Draft Injury Risks Like Jordan Reed & Sammy Watkins
Both of these players are going to come to you at a great discount because of their injury history. It’s quite possible that these picks will bite you in the butt once they get injured, but your gamble is that they’ll get hurt later in the season, providing you several weeks of above-average Fantasy points per game in that lineup slot. Once they go down, you should likely be able to replace them with good players available on a well-stocked waiver wire, since there are just eight or 10 teams playing.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark Tenally
Draft Your Defense and Kicker Earlier Than Everyone Else
It’s crazy talk, I know. But this is you playing risky! Take the Broncos, Texans, Chiefs or Seahawks defense in Rounds 9 or 10, just before everyone else starts piling on. Then once they get in on it, you’ll likely have a chance at the same sleeper you were going to take anyway.
As far as kickers go, there are only a few you should reach for in this gameplan – Matt Bryant, Stephen Gostkowski and Justin Tucker. Grab them a round or two before the final round of your draft, when all the other teams will draft kickers, and it could result in a 2-3 points per game weekly boost for your lineup.
Unfortunately, kickers are volatile and this boost isn’t guaranteed, which is why it’s risky!
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Draft Falling Duds Like Andrew Luck & Cam Newton
While everyone else is running for the hills trying to avoid possible Fantasy disasters like Luck and Newton, these are two players that were the No. 1 Fantasy quarterbacks in 2014 and 2015 respectively. True, injuries have affected them and they might not pan out this year, but by drafting one (or heck, both) of these players, you could end up with one of the cheapest superstars in the game. If they don’t pan out, you dip into the super deep QB pool for a player like Matthew Stafford or Dak Prescott.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/John Raoux
Take More Chances On Rookie Running Backs Than Normal
Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen a couple sleeper rookie running backs find their way to become Fantasy Football studs: David Johnson and Jordan Howard. Those two guys were late-rounders in their respective years, and we think there’s a good chance of that happening again as teams continue to wait in the NFL Draft on running backs.
Rather than drafting a veteran like Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Hill or Jamaal Charles, who has talent but limited upside, consider drafting rookie running backs in that same area. You can lock up players like Samaje Perine, Jamaal Williams, Marlon Mack, Joe Williams, Jonathan Williams and D’Onta Foreman and increase your chances at a home run, rather than a slap single.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Fred Vuich
Try To Trade Down For More Draft Picks
Yes, everyone gets superstars in these smaller leagues, but if you can turn a superstar into two solid players for your lineup, you can then take more chances with your later picks. If you take your second-round pick and trade it for a fourth- and a fifth-round pick, you gave up a top-20 player to add two top-50 players. That’s a win for you.
In larger leagues, the team that gets the best player usually wins these types of trades, but in smaller leagues, when the difference between a second- and a fourth-rounder is smaller than in big leagues, plus you get to add a fifth-rounder, then you’re golden!
If you can trade the 18th pick (Dez Bryant or Leonard Fournette) for the 35th (Keenan Allen or Joe Mixon) and 45th picks (Kelvin Benjamin or C.J. Anderson), you should make that move.
You can use FootballGuys.com’s Draft Pick Value Calculator to find good values in pick trades.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark J. TerrillFeatured Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jason Behnken
