NFL Conference Championship Playoff DFS Picks
Jake Ciely @allinkid of RotoExperts.com deals up the best NFL Conference Championship DFS picks with daily fantasy football lineup advice and DFS sleepers.
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It's the final week for Daily Fantasy Football. All the sads. No more NFL DFS until August. Hold me.
Okay, while we will be crying ourselves to sleep Sunday night over the DFS season ending, hopefully we can blow our noses into a nice wad of cash.
Aaron Rodgers ($8100 DK/$9600 FD, 16.2% DK/16.0% FD) – Even with an interception against the Cowboys, no quarterback has been hotter than Rodgers since Week 11. With two touchdown passes in last week's game as well, Rodgers now has 24 in those nine games and just one interception. Rodgers is also averaging 304 passing yards per game during that span. There's a reason he's the most expensive quarterback, although, with the injury concerns to Jordy Nelson (likely out), Davante Adams (likely not practicing until Saturday) and Geronimo Allison missing practice on Wednesday, it's hard to justify paying up for him.
Matt Ryan ($7700/$9200, 15.4%/15.3%) – With Rodgers' run, many have overlooked Ryan's performance in the Falcons last five games. Ryan has 14 touchdowns, zero interceptions and 294 yards per game during those. As we all know, the Packers pass defense is among the league's worst, and they let Dak Prescott throw for 302 yards and three touchdowns last week. That's more than doable for Ryan, especially at home where he averaged 28.0 FPPG, 323 yards and 2.4 touchdowns.
Tom Brady ($7100/$8300, 14.2%/13.8%) – Speaking of touchdowns and interceptions, no one was better… eeeeeevvverrrr… than Brady this year. The Texans did a good job of limiting Brady, but as good as the Steelers defense is playing, they don't have as many difference makers. It's Brady, it's Bill Belichick, it's in New England, it's the playoffs. If you're going to give me a discount on one of the best quarterbacks in history, sign me up.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5800/$8000, 11.6%/13.3%) – Roethlisberger doesn't make much sense at all given his home/road splits. If you aren't aware of them, well, let me know how uncomfortable it is living under a rock. If you want to go contrarian (please, don't… but it's your money) Big Ben only makes sense on DraftKings. Paying only $300 less than Brady on FanDuel is the definition of insanity.
Le'Veon Bell ($10300/$9500, 20.6%/15.8%) – Bell was nearly perfect this year, scoring fewer than 16.8 points just once with 70 total yards against the Ravens in Week 9. Nevertheless, Bell still scored 13.0 points in that game, and he had 24.9 against the Patriots in the first matchup with 10 receptions. You have to think that Belichick is going to do whatever it takes to stop Bell in the playoffs. Malcolm Butler can handle Antonio Brown, or at least contain him enough on his own to allow the defense to hone in on Bell. It's hard to fade Bell in cash, but in the championship week with limited options, Bell is going to make filling your tournament lineup a bit tough and flier reliant.
Devonta Freeman ($7200/$8000, 14.4%/13.3%) – The Packers run defense started the year hot, but it struggled after Week 7, and that started with the Falcons in Week 8 when Freeman scored 21.8. Tevin Coleman ($4800/$6300, 9.6%/10.5%) missed that game, but the Packers allowed 21 or more points to the opponent's top running back six times in nine games. It could have been more if not for facing the Eagles without Ryan Mathews and the Vikings pathetic backfield. Last week, Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 125 yards on 22 carries. It's always a risk with Freeman and Coleman sharing touches, but as mentioned last week, Coleman averages nearly 17 FPPG in Falcons wins, which makes me like him a bit more at the price.
Ty Montgomery ($5600/$6900, 11.2%/11.5%) – Montgomery found the end zone twice last week, and the Falcons allowed the fourth most FPPG to running backs this year. With the injuries to the Packers receivers, Montgomery could see more work than usual, but there is also the risk that the Packers offense finally fizzles out. I still like Montgomery in both formats, although a bit more in tournaments. Christine Michael ($3300/$5300, 6.6%/8.8%) has the chance for more work if Nelson and Adams both miss the game and is a tournament flier. The same goes for Aaron Ripkowski ($3000/$4500, 6.0%/8.2%), although he's more of a touchdown chase.
Dion Lewis ($5300/$7000, 10.6%/11.7%) – Last week was Lewis week, so this week is LeGarrette Blount ($4400/$6500, 8.8%/10.8%) week, right? It's Belichick folks. No one knows. Matchup wise, the Steelers were much more susceptible to pass-catching running backs this year, but if road Roethlisberger shows up and the Steelers are down early, Blount could easily dominate the touches. One thing I've learned is that I should never attempt a prediction on the Patriots backfield. I felt Lewis was a good play last week, and if pressed, I like Blount this week… do NOT hold me to this though if it all goes to hell and James White goes off.
Antonio Brown ($8800/$8400, 17.6%/14.0%) – As mentioned above, Butler can contain Brown, although he won't stop him. Thanks to Mike Clay of ESPN, we know that Brown ran 68 routes for 20 targets, 14 catches, 193 yards and a touchdown in their last two matchups, or 19.7 FPPG if only facing Butler. Brown obviously won't see Butler the entire game, which gives him upside for more, but we can't forget that it's a road game. Brown is the most expensive receiver on DraftKings, which makes dropping down to Julio Jones sensible, whereas you can save a few hundred by using Brown on FanDuel.
To see the rest of Jake's breakdowns and picks, head on over to RotoExperts.com.
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