NFL Mock Draft Based on Betting Market Odds
The NFL Draft is quickly approaching and should be the most popular NFL Draft to bet on of all time. With limited live sports around the world to bet on, the sportsbooks have put out dozens of NFL Draft betting markets, prop bets and more will be added in the coming weeks.
At SportsGrid, we have already written up some of our favorite NFL Draft prop bets and will continue to add articles in the coming weeks. But this article isn’t betting advice, but rather utilizing that information to formulate an NFL 2020 Mock Draft based on betting market odds. The rules of this Mock Draft are simple:
- No Trading Draft Picks
- Can only select players available in PointsBet Over-Under Betting Markets.
NFL 2020 Mock Draft – Top 5 Picks
|1||CINCINNATI BENGALS||JOE BURROW||QB||1|
|2||WASHINGTON REDSKINS||CHASE YOUNG||DE||2.5|
|3||DETROIT LIONS||JEFFREY OKUDAH||CB||4.5|
|4||NEW YORK GIANTS||ISAIAH SIMMONS||LB||6.5|
|5||MIAMI DOLPHINS||TUA TAGOVAILOA||QB||3.5|
In the betting markets, the Top 5 is a fairly consensus group of players, although Justin Hebert is right in the mix with an O/U of Pick 5.5. The betting market odds for him imply a team may trade up to “get their guy” and the Lions are a candidate to trade down, but in this Mock Draft there are no trades.
We have the consensus top two picks going off the board in Joe Burrow and Chase Young, followed by the Top CB in Jeffrey Okudah. Okudah is -10000 to be the first CB taken in this draft and an expected Top 5 selection. The Giants then select Simmons who is -3335 to be the first LB taken in the 2020 Draft, and Tua Tagovailoa falls to the Miami Dolphins who have three picks in the 2020 first round.
NFL 2020 Mock Draft – Picks 5 Through 10
|6||LA CHARGERS||JUSTIN HERBERT||QB||5.5|
|7||CAROLINA PANTHERS||DERRICK BROWN||DL||7.5|
|8||ARIZONA CARDINALS||MEHKI BECTON||OL||7.5|
|9||JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS||TRISTAN WIRFS||OL||8.5|
|10||CLEVELAND BROWNS||JEDRICK WILLS||OL||9.5|
With two quarterbacks off the board already, the betting markets expect Justin Herbert to be a Top 10 draft pick, and the LA Chargers make sense for a landing spot. With Tua (-400) off of the board, Herbert is in a tier by himself in betting markets at +250 to be the 2nd QB drafted compared to Jordan Love at +1200. While the Jaguars have QB uncertainty, we don’t think they’ll reach this far to select a QB and instead will wait for their second pick of the 1st round.
In this mock, the Panthers take the Top DL (Derrick Brown) followed by a string of OL that are projected as Top 10 picks. If anybody were to jump the Top OL prospects it could be DT Javon Kinlaw who rates comparably to Derrick Brown in betting markets.
NFL 2020 Mock Draft – Picks 5 Through 10
|11||NEW YORK JETS||CEEDEE LAMB||WR||12.5|
|12||LAS VEGAS RAIDERS||JERRY JEUDY||WR||12.5|
|13||SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS||ANDREW THOMAS||OL||12.5|
|14||TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS||JAVON KINLAW||DT||13.5|
|15||DENVER BRONCOS||K’LAVON CHAISSON||LB||15.5|
|16||ATLANTA FALCONS||HENRY RUGGS||WR||16.5|
|17||DALLAS COWBOYS||CJ HENDERSON||CB||17.5|
|18||MIAMI DOLPHINS||XAVIER MCKINNEY||S||23.5|
|19||LAS VEGAS RAIDERS||YETUR GROSS-MATOS||DE||26.5|
|20||JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS||JORDAN LOVE||QB||16.5|
Things get a bit more congested in picks 11 through 20. While its possible that betting markets take more action (and thus shift odds) on offensive skill players, the depth of the 2020 wide receiver class is strong and both Jerry Jeudy and Ceedee Lamb are projected as Top 15 selections. If that is the case, the New York Jets offer a natural landing spot as the departed Robby Anderson leaves plenty of targets vacant for Sam Darnold. The Raiders are in a perfect spot to draft a wide receiver. The Ruggs fit in Atlanta doesn’t make a ton of sense, but given his betting odds, I felt more obligated to pencil him inside of the Top 20.
In this mock, the Dolphins were able to land Tua, and thus look for defensive help with the 18th pick, and the Jaguars invest some draft capital at the QB position with Jordan Love as the 4th QB off of the board.
|21||PHILADELPHIA EAGLES||JUSTIN JEFFERSON||WR||23.5|
|22||BUFFALO BILLS||TREVON DIGGS||CB||27.5|
|23||NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS||JOSH JONES||OL||27.5|
|24||NEW ORLEANS SAINTS||AJ EPENESA||DE||30.5|
|25||MINNESOTA VIKINGS||TEE HIGGINS||WR||31.5|
|26||MIAMI DOLPHINS||D’ANDRE SWIFT||RB||28.5|
|27||SEATTLE SEAHAWKS||GRANT DELPIT||S||30.5|
|28||BALTIMORE RAVENS||DENZEL MIMS||WR||34.5|
|29||TENNESSEE TITANS||ROSS BLACKLOCK||DL||32.5|
|30||GREEN BAY PACKERS||COLE KMET||TE||46.5|
|31||SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS||JAKE FROMM||QB||45.5|
|32||KANSAS CITY CHIEFS||JONATHAN TAYLOR||RB||36.5|
There is even more risk in our back-end of the first-round selections given the rules of this mock draft – players are only eligible to be selected if they have an Over/Under market set at PointsBet. This hamstrings us a bit especially at the tail-end where Jake Fromm, Jonathan Taylor, and Jacob Eason were the last three players on the board. Is it possible the Packers would look to groom a replacement for declining 36-year old Rodgers? It is, but we instead have them taking TE Cole Kmet who is the top-rated TE in the class and -143 to be the 1st TE drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Taylor is also a peculiar case as he’s unlikely to be a first-round selection, but there weren’t enough available betting markets open for us to identify a player from within those parameters.
Other notable selections that fantasy players would be interested in following is the landing spot for WRs Justin Jefferson (Eagles), Tee Higgins (Vikings) and Denzel Mims (Ravens), all who the betting markets have as 1st round values. There are some natural links to these teams given lack of depth of the Eagles, the departure of Diggs for the Vikings, and Mims would give Lamar Jackson another big body who could work in the passing game and potentially be groomed as a run-blocker.
In this mock draft, the New England Patriots pass on investing a 1st round pick in one of the non-premier QB options and instead draft an OL selection.
For more NFL Draft content check out Davis Mattek’s Mock Draft 1.0.