NFL Mock Draft: Expert Consensus Picks for Each Team
The 2020 NFL Draft is just a few weeks away, betting markets are live, and it will soon dominate the sports media landscape in a COVID-19 world with limited live sports to entertain fans. Hundreds of experts or pundits and thousands of sports fans have already begun creating mock drafts and thanks to sites like Grinding the Mock we have the ability to better than ever understand who people are drafting. Leveraging a wisdom of the crowds approach to many things in life has been shown to improve median projection accuracy, and the NFL Draft should be no different.
We have already compiled a mock draft based on betting odds and this one will lean instead into experts consensus. We’ve selected the most popular consensus mock draft pick across hundreds of drafts for each team and rated it with a confidence rating.
For the most part, we only drafted off of consensus picks, which means that if a top-end player like Tristan Wirfs or Jederick Mills didn’t have an individual consensus, they didn’t get drafted. Realistically, both players are top-end prospects and the same experts have them as Top 10 draft picks, but there just wasn’t a consensus team. This isn’t meant to portray the opinion that they won’t be drafted high but just account for the uncertainty of which team they would land with.
LEAN = 0 TO 10 PERCENT CONFIDENCE, AVERAGE = 10 TO 20 PERCENT CONFIDENCE, STRONG = 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER CONFIDENCE
Pick 1, CINCINNATI BENGALS
JOE BURROW, QB, LSU, STRONG CONFIDENCE
The consensus top pick is Joe Burrow who goes to the Bengals in more than 75 percent of expert mock drafts. It would be shocking to see Burrow go anywhere else but the Bengals.
Pick 2, WASHINGTON REDSKINS
CHASE YOUNG, DE, OHIO STATE, STRONG CONFIDENCE
Chase Young to the Washington Redskins is a similar level of consensus as Burrow to the Bengals. While there are rumors the Redskins are interested in LB Isaiah Simmons that would likely be a trade down scenario.
Pick 3, DETROIT LIONS
JEFFREY OKUDAH, CB, OHIO STATE, STRONG CONFIDENCE
Jeffrey Okudah is likely to go either #3 or #4 overall according to mock drafts, and is the trending choice for the Detroit Lions, though not as near-consensus as the top two picks.
Pick 4, NEW YORK GIANTS
DERRICK BROWN, DL, AUBURN, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
The consensus pick for the Giants is also Okudah, interestingly enough, but in this draft, he is off the board leaving the Giants with Auburn DL Derrick Brown. In our mock draft based on betting odds we had this pick flipped with the Carolina Panthers 7th overall selection. Betting markets actually have the Giants -225 to select an offensive player, which would imply one of the Top OL could be drafted here.
Pick 5, MIAMI DOLPHINS
TUA TAGOVAILOA, QB, ALABAMA, STRONG CONFIDENCE
Tua to the Dolphins is another fairly strong consensus pick here, with the Lions committed to Stafford and the Giants committed to Danny Dimes. Tua goes to the Dolphins in a high percentage of drafts, but with multiple picks, it is always possible we see a different scenario.
Pick 6, LA CHARGERS
JUSTIN HERBERT, QB, OREGON, STRONG CONFIDENCE
Another strong consensus pick is Justin Hebert at #6 overall to the LA Chargers, who currently have Tyrod Taylor as their starting QB. Herbert’s current betting O/U is Pick 5.5 with -220 juice to the over, making this a reasonable landing spot.
Pick 7, CAROLINA PANTHERS
ISAIAH SIMMONS, LB, CLEMSON, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
Derrick Brown was the favored target for the Panthers, and our selection based on the betting odds mock draft but this mock he is off the board. Instead, the Panthers select LB Isaiah Simmons in 15 percent of the drafts.
Pick 8, ARIZONA CARDINALS
CEEDEE LAMB, WR, OKLAHOMA, LEAN
The consensus mock drafts have CeeDee Lamb going to the Cardinals but in just 15 percent of drafts. This is a bit surprising since Jeudy is the consensus first WR off the board. Realistically, this number is probably too high with the acquisition of Deandre Hopkins, and a reliable Christian Kirk.
We don’t expect them to go WR, and if the Cardinals don’t go WR, expect them to look at a top OL option like Tristan Wirfs or Mekhi Becton, leaving Lamb or Jeudy a key decision for the Jets and Raiders.
Pick 9, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
CJ HENDERSON, CB, FLORIDA, LEAN
There is no consensus pick for the Jaguars as their needs include Cornerback, Lineback, Wide Receiver and even QB. CJ Henderson is the prohibitive favorite but still just a 10-1 shot to land with the Jags.
Pick 10, CLEVELAND BROWNS
MEKHI BECTON, OL, LOUISVILLE, STRONG CONFIDENCE
Mekhi Becton or Tristan Wirfs are the top OL expected to go, with Jedrick Mills just behind them. In this mock, the Browns add Becton 25 percent of the time and get some needed protection for franchise QB Baker Mayfield.
Pick 11, NEW YORK JETS
ANDREW THOMAS, OL, GEORGIA, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
The top of the board gets O-Line heavy here as the Jets select OL Andrew Thomas in 20 percent of drafts. Thomas is +500 to be the first OL off the board as another team with high draft capital at QB looks to protect their asset. Wide receiver is another option with this pick.
Pick 12, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
JERRY JEUDY, WR, ALABAMA, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
Jeudy is the consensus #1 WR and a -110 favorite to the first one selected. At Pick #12, the Raiders add the first offensive skill position player taken. Jeudy’s O/U at DraftKings Sportsbook is pick 11.5.
Pick 13, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
XAVIER MCKINNEY, S, ALABAMA, LEAN
McKinney is perhaps a surprising consensus pick to the 49ers, and his O/U is Pick 24.5 making this a bit of a stretch. However, with the Cowboys also targeting a safety potentially, this could be a good number to bet for the safety that is -200 to be the first safety drafted.
Pick 14, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
JAVON KINLAW, DT, SOUTH CAROLINA, LEAN
While Jacob Eason is mentioned in this spot in a few places, the consensus pick here is Javon Kinlaw from South Carolina.
Pick 15, DENVER BRONCOS
HENRY RUGGS, WR, ALABAMA, STRONG CONFIDENCE
At Pick 15, the Broncos will still have plenty of talented wideouts to choose from. They will hope for one of Lamb or Jeudy to fall, but if not, 30 percent of mock drafts have Jeudy’s teammate Henry Ruggs going to the Broncos.
Pick 16, ATLANTA FALCONS
AJ EPENESA, DE, IOWA, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
The Falcons add DE talent in AJ Epenesa here.
Pick 17, DALLAS COWBOYS
GRANT DELPIT, S, LSU, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
While the mainstream media often looks for the Cowboys to make a splash with a big name draft pick, the expert mocks think they will add Grant Deplit who is the consensus #2 safety in the draft after Xavier McKinney.
Pick 18, MIAMI DOLPHINS
OFFENSIVE LINE, WRITE-IN
The Dolphins own three picks in the first round, which skews the data a bit on “consensus” for the drafts. We expect the Dolphins to use one of their selections on an offensive lineman here. If Jederick Mills and Tristan Wirfs are selected above, it could push down Andrew Thomas or Becton, and we’d expect the Dolphins to draft one of those players if available.
Pick 19, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
K’LAVON CHAISSON, LB, LSU, LEAN
With a wide receiver need drafted already, the mocks actually have Kenneth Murray as a consensus pick in 15 percent of mocks. However, if Chaisson (who was not the consensus pick to any team) is still on the board the Raiders will snap call.
Pick 20, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
TREVON DIGGS, CB, ALABAMA, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
While the Jaguars invest both of their first-rounders in the secondary? It is unlikely, but given the earlier pick was just a lean, we’ll go back to the well here and do expect the Jaguars to draft one cornerback with their first two selections.
Pick 21, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
JUSTIN JEFFERSON, WR, LSU, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
The Eagles wide receivers are aging and injured (Jackson, Jeffrey) or pretty raw (Arcega-Whiteside). While another top pick here would be a lot of draft capital invested at a single position, the wide receiver class is deep. Ruggs, Jefferson, Shenault and Higgins are all also mentioned here, and a wide receiver to Philly at Pick 21 happens in nearly 50 percent of expert mock drafts.
Pick 22, BUFFALO BILLS
TRADED TO VIKINGS
Wide receiver was an option for the Bills, but like the Cardinals, they have covered some of those needs with the Stefon Diggs acquisition and essentially used this pick to select Diggs. Because of this, we don’t have consensus data for the Vikings at Pick 22.
Pick 23, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
JORDAN LOVE, QB, UTAH STATE, LEAN
With the departure of Tom Brady, there will be rumors swirling around the Patriots leading into the NFL draft. What the Patriots do with this pick will let us understand a little bit more about their confidence in Jarrett Stidham. Expert mocks have Jordan Love going to the Patriots in 10 percent of drafts.
Pick 24, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
JALEN REAGOR, WR, TCU, AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
The 5th wide receiver off the board in the first round is Jalen Reagor who goes to the saints in 15 percent of drafts. Reagor could easily be Tee Higgins, Denzil Mims or Laviska Shenault if they do select a WR. Jordan Love also drew some interest in Saints mock drafts by experts for scenarios where the Patriots passed on the QB.
Pick 25, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
TROY DYE, LB, LSU, LEAN
A lot of Vikings consensus picks are gone here, leaving them with Troy Dye from the LSU Tigers. Dye would make it 5 LSU players drafted in the first round.
Pick 26, MIAMI DOLPHINS
DEANDRE SWIFT, RB, GEORGIA, LEAN
Drafting on need, the Dolphins add the consensus #1 pick at a 2nd position, taking the RB that is -165 to be the first RB drafted.
Pick 27, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
JULIAN OKWARA, DE, NOTRE DAME, LEAN
While we don’t know what they will do, it would be surprising to see them not invest in their defense.
Pick 28, BALTIMORE RAVENS
TERRELL LEWIS, LB, ALABAMA, LEAN
Terrell Lewis makes the 6th Alabama player taken in the 1st round and the 3rd defensive option. While the Ravens also have needs at defensive end and wide receiver, signing a top-end linebacker fits their organization perfectly.
Pick 29, TENNESSEE TITANS
JAKE FROMM, QB, GEORGIA, LEAN
Fromm is the top consensus pick to the Titans though it occurs in just 10 percent of mock drafts. While Tannehill is inked to a four-year extension, the Titans could still look to solidify a backup and transition plan given Marcus Mariota’s departure to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Pick 30, GREEN BAY PACKERS
LAVISKA SHENAULT, WR, COLORADO, LEAN
In this mock draft, Shenault is the 6th wide receiver off the board in a pick that could easily be Tee Higgins or Denzel Wims.
Pick 31, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
NOAH IGBINOGHENE, CB, AUBURN, LEAN
Most of the 49ers’ top targets are gone here, leaving them with Noah Igbinoghene from Auburn.
Pick 32, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
KRISTIAN FULTON, CB, LSU, LEAN
Fulton would be the 4th defensive back drafted and 6th player from LSU if the Chiefs draft defensive help as expected.