Vegas Helps You Pick Fantasy Defenses For Week 4
If you were in a league that deducted Fantasy points if your defense allowed too many points or yards, then wow, you might have had some problems last week!
In spite of the fact Vegas didn’t expect any of the games in Week 3 to go over 50 total points, there were actually HALF of the games last week that went over 50 points. EIGHT GAMES!
Heck, there were FOUR games that eclipsed 65 points!
Madness! Insanity! Crazy-ocity!
Well, once again, Vegas doesn’t expect any of the Week 4 games to go over 50 points. (In Week 1, by comparison, they expected five games to go over!)
Even so, Vegas knows the game and has the ability to project far better than anyone else.
Each week, we take a look at the lines at the sportsbooks to find some good plays that might help our Fantasy Football chances. As they refine their numbers, so do we.
We look at the upcoming matchups to find the lowest expected scoring games, and the games with the largest point spreads, indicating a defense that should dominate.
While a low-scoring game is usually indicative of an offense not producing, it also probably means the defense they’re facing will pick up plenty of turnovers and sacks.
Week 4 Point Spreads and Over-Under Lines
The numbers on the matchups are taken directly from Wednesday’s numbers at VegasInsider.com. The ownership percentages are from CBSSports.com’s Fantasy Football leagues.
Seahawks DST vs. Detroit
Owned in 100 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 43
Point spread: Seahawks -10
Projected final score: Seattle 26.5, Detroit 16.5
Cardinals DST vs. St. Louis
Owned in 95 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 42.5
Point spread: Cardinals -7
Projected final score: Arizona 25, St. Louis 18
Broncos DST vs. Minnesota
Owned in 91 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 43
Point spread: Broncos -6.5
Projected final score: Denver 25, Minnesota 18
Panthers DST at Tampa Bay
Owned in 92 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 40
Point spread: Panthers -3
Projected final score: Carolina 21.5, Tampa Bay 18.5
Chargers DST vs. Cleveland
Owned in 21 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 45
Point spread: Chargers -7.5
Projected final score: San Diego 26, Cleveland 19
Bengals DST vs. Kansas City
Owned in 60 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 44
Point spread: Bengals -4
Projected final score: Cincinnati 24, Kansas City 20
Jets DST at Miami
Owned in 85 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 41
Point spread: Jets -1.5
Projected final score: N.Y. Jets 21, Miami 20
The Chargers and Bengals DSTs might be your best bets to pick up off the waiver wire, as they are the only defense/special teams from this group available in at least 40 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.
Look to pick some of these defenses this week to replace your regular Fantasy DST, and use this same methodology going forward. Daily Fantasy Football players can also use this same concept to find the highest projected scoring offenses for stacking lineups.
Photo Credit: Joe Robbins, Getty Images
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