Week 12 Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Week 12 Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Every week in the fantasy football workshop, I will go through all the important news + notes, take a look at any important statistical oddities that can improve our process in fantasy football (and help our rosters) while also posting my rest-of-season rankings. The idea behind this space is to give readers an insight into how rankings are made and for all of us to keep track of players’ values throughout the course of the season.
Week 12+13 Fantasy Football News And Notes
-While the NFL says that the Ravens/Steelers game on Thursday night is on schedule to be played, I have my severe doubts. It is now being reported that up to 10 members of the entire Ravens organization have tested positive for COVID, including the coaching staff. The NFL is doing everything it can to keep to their schedule, but this is a tall mountain to climb.
-Both John Brown and Dawson Knox did not practice on Tuesday. With a high-total game against the Chargers coming on Sunday, I would make sure that Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley are owned in your leagues. Beasley, in particular, is actually a very high-ceiling streaming WR option this week.
–Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury is at least serious enough that he was “rehabbing” during practice on Tuesday and not taking his full first-team reps. Of course, you are not benching Kyler, but if he runs less this week against New England, we should see some more work for Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake as road favorites.
-Joe Burrow is out for this season and likely all of next season as well with a torn ACL and MCL. Ryan Finley is going to take over at QB for the Bengals, but he is maybe the worst QB on an NFL roster at the moment. Positively DiNucci-esque. The only Bengal I can see starting for the rest of the season is Tyler Boyd, and even that could prove thin. Pick up as many DSTs as possible playing the Bengals the rest of the way.
-Juju Smith-Schuster did not practice on Monday due to a foot injury sustained on Sunday. If he cannot play, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool both probably rank as top-12 fantasy WRs, even against Baltimore in Week 12. James Washington would be a streaming option, and Eric Ebron would be a startable TE as well.
-Kahale Warring has been activated from the injured reserve just as Kenny Still and Randall Cobb got injured. In the deepest of deep formats, Warring has some aura of upside compared to the absolutely disgusting depths at tight end. Obviously, we prefer Jordan Akins, but Warring is more a receiving TE than Darren Fells is.
-LaMical Perine has a high-ankle sprain, and we probably will not see him for the rest of the year. The Jets should give Josh Adams or Ty Johnson an audition, but this likely means that we are just going to see a disgusting amount of Frank Gore.
-Adam Thielen has been placed on the COVID list. If he cannot come back for two weeks instead of just one, Irv Smith Jr. and Chad Beebe could see themselves as fringe fantasy starters. Smith had a two-touchdown game before he missed a game due to injury. The team is most invested in Smith’s success, and he is probably a better replacement for Thielen’s red-zone skill set.
-In terrible QB news, Brandon Allen will be starting for the Bengals instead of Ryan Finley, and Mike Glennon will be starting for the Jaguars instead of Jake Luton. Allen is maybe worth a claim in the deepest of deep Superflex situations, but I would rather have Jalen Hurts rostered, for example.
-Christian McCaffrey is expected to practice this week, which would relegate Mike Davis back to a bench role and also limit the role that Curtis Samuel has been playing. It is not a coincidence that the best stretch of Samuel’s career is coming in a year where CMC has played only three games.
Week 12 and 13 Team Level Fantasy Football Analysis And Player Usage Notes
-Last year, one of my favorite things in fantasy football was using the Air Yards charts to create something I called the “Unrealized Air Yards” chart as well as “Unrealized Fantasy Points,” which was basically just to see how many fantasy points wide receivers were leaving on the field. The formula is not tricky; it is just Air Yards subtracted by actual yards as well as yards after the catch.
This is the table from the last month of football:
-Some fantasy-relevant observations: DJ Moore continues to show up on this list and is perhaps the best dynasty wide receiver buy, or maybe just the best buy in dynasty period. DJ Chark has been the victim of horrible QB play, and in a very bizarre twist, I think Mike Glennon might be an upgrade for him. Michael Gallup and Marquise Brown have their fantasy owners tearing their hair out, but the sort of targets they get are so valuable that they need to be rostered. Gallup is also probably an ideal “buy low” dynasty player as he provides little current utility loads of future utility.
-Quarterback scoring has finally started to level out. While Kyler Murray is on pace to beat Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Lamar himself are having more “mortal” years. At years end, the Kyler/Russ/Herbert tier of fantasy QBs is going to have one of the largest win rates we have ever seen from the QB position.
-The running back position…my friends….it is dead. Not ONE single player at the RB position has played over 80% of their team’s offensive snaps. While James Robinson is actually getting games with 100% of the RB touches for the Jaguars, by and large, we are seeing a flattening of RB scoring and many teams using a three-RB rotation. 2020 might not be the best year for Zero RB; it could just be the start.
-It is worth reiterating that this is the worst tight end season of all time. Using the expected points table from RotoViz, you can see just how brutal it has been. Dalton Schultz, Jimmy Grham, and Logan Thomas are top-12 expected points tight ends while names like Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, and Chris Herndon have fallen off the face of the earth.
Rest Of Season Fantasy Football Rankings