Week 13 Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Week 13 Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Every week in the fantasy football workshop, I will go through all the important news + notes and look at any important statistical oddities that can improve our process in fantasy football (and help our rosters) while also posting my rest-of-season rankings. The idea behind this space is to give readers an insight into how rankings are made and for all of us to keep track of players’ values throughout the course of the season.
Week 12+13 Fantasy Football News And Notes
-Brandon Aiyuk has been activated from the COVID-19 list, which means that he can return to the 49ers next game. It has been a bumpy ride for his fantasy football owners, but we should expect him to play a pretty large.
-Carlos Hyde out-snapped Chris Carson by a large degree on Monday Night (41-25) and also out-carried Carson 15 to eight. That split will probably not hold, but it is clear that the Seahawks coaching staff plans on using these two in a pretty healthy split, which really decreases both of their values since neither will be heavily used in the passing game.
-All of the Broncos QBs (Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, and Blake Bortles) have tested negative for COVID-19, which means that the Broncos will have an actual starting QB in Week 13. Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and Melvin Gordon all become startable options again with Drew Lock under center.
-It has been so long since the Ravens originally tested positive for COVID that both JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram *may* be eligible to play in the Week 12 Wednesday game against the Steelers. Dobbins would obviously be a great start if this is true, but it is not as if you can really react to this information with only one day left.
-DJ Moore had to be carried off the field after the Panthers’ Week 12 loss to the Vikings, but coach Matt Rhule did not rule out Moore in Week 13 and said that X-Rays on Moore’s ankle came back negative, which means he likely avoided a serious injury. If he were to miss time, that would be a pretty substantive boost to both Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel.
-Josh Jacobs has a sprained ankle that is leaving him with a “chance” to play in Week 13 per Ian Rapoport. I am personally betting on him NOT playing in Week 13 because we saw something similar happen to Jacobs last year at the end of the season, and the team chose to rest him.
-Daniel Jones is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring strain, which will bring Colt McCoy in as starting QB for the Giants over that time frame. This would be a massive downgrade for the Giants pass-catchers, even if the bar was not that high with Jones to begin with. There is maybe some chance that this leads to even more groundwork for Wayne Gallman, but seriously, McCoy is terrible. This is going to be Jets-level offensive quality for the Giants.
-Mitchell Trubisky is going to remain the starter for the Bears, at least for the foreseeable future. Now, does this matter at all? Not really. Allen Robinson had his best fantasy game of the season last week against the Packers, but really the best thing Trubisky can do for A-Rob is create garbage time. No one else on the Bears is a fantasy starter bar David Montgomery, and even that honestly makes you queasy.
-Bruce Arians told reporters that Ronald Jones “needs to get 20 touches a game”. I mean, yeah. When Arians is right, he is right. However, this is like the 118th time he has said something complimentary about RoJo only for absolutely no one to believe him and for us to prepare for him to be benched for Ke’Shawn Vaughn for some reason.
Week 12+13 Team Level Fantasy Football Analysis And Player Usage Notes
-Last year, one of my favorite things in fantasy football was using the Air Yards charts to create something I called the “Unrealized Air Yards” chart as well as “Unrealized Fantasy Points,” which was basically just to see how many fantasy points wide receivers were leaving on the field. The formula is not tricky; it is just Air Yards subtracted by actual yards as well as yards after the catch.
I was sick of looking at AJ Green’s name at the top of this list, so this is the Unrealized Air Yards Table from the last four weeks of football:
At the very least, Jerry Jeudy is being targeted like a No. 1 wide receiver, and so is Denzel Mims. In fact, the top three unrealized fantasy points WRS over the last month are all rookie wideouts. If you have non-competitive dynasty teams with solid vets (and your league still allows trading), I would personally be willing to overpay for the likes of Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs/Shenault/Claypool/Mims at the time being.
-On the other hand, what a brutal year for rookie running backs. CEH will finish as a top-15 RB pretty easily but definitely will not be a league winner. Jonathan Taylor has been a massive disappointment, as has Cam Akers and JK Dobbins. Gibson has been a clear home run, and for where Josh Kelley went in rookie drafts and in best ball, he has been a value as well. It is possible that AJ Dillon just needed a redshirt year, but outside of CEH, Gibson, and Swift, there do not appear to any future fantasy stars in this much-ballyhooed class of rookies.
-This is the expected points table from the last month of the season from RotoViz. We continue to see wide receivers crushing in both expected points and actual points while Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson, Hunter Henry, and Darren Waller are the only tight ends who have been above 50 expected points. However, something I do expect to see over the end of the season is the RBs who have survived to this point to start rising towards the top. We now have some single-backfield situations emerging with a plethora of injuries and COVID tests.