Week 6 Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Week 6 Fantasy Football Workshop
Every week in the fantasy football workshop, I will go through all the important news + notes, take a look at any important statistical oddities that can improve our process in fantasy football (and help our rosters) while also posting my rest-of-season rankings. The idea behind this space is to give readers an insight into how rankings are made and for all of us to keep track of players’ values throughout the course of the season.
Week 5 & 6 Fantasy Football News And Notes
-Despite the entire fantasy football world trying to will Chase Claypool into the next AJ Brown (yours truly included), Diontae Johnson is expected to practice on Wednesday when the Steelers report to their facility. The big losers for fantasy are James Washington and the Steelers tight ends because the 3 WR set for Pittsburgh should be Claypool, Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
–Confirming what we already expected, it has been reported that Dalvin Cook is not going to play in Week 6 (the Vikings have a bye in Week 7). Do what you need to get Alexander Mattison on your teams. Mike Boone is an elite 1-5% FAAB bid this week.
-Keenan Allen went down in Monday night’s game between the Chargers and Saints. Leaving in the second quarter and not returning left massive opportunity for Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton though the Chargers have a bye in Week 6. Guyton is a decent $1 bid this week.
-Sammy Watkins is expected to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury for the Kansas City Chiefs. We are now about to learn if the thesis behind jamming Mecole Hardman into all our fantasy teams is legit. Demarcus Robinson has been an all-time windsprinter this year as a full-time player with only 15 targets for KC. Part of me wonders if we see Ricky Seals-Jones active for the first time in KC’s next game as a partial Watkins replacement.
–It sounds like Christian McCaffrey is going to be on the longer side of a 4-6 week timeline recovery from his high ankle injury. Those who won Mike Davis off of waivers are probably hoping that CMC decides to use this as a time to get himself fully, 100% healthy because Davis has been the best player in fantasy since McCaffrey left the Panthers lineup. Something you could consider would be trading Davis to the CMC owner for an outsized return if they are hurting.
–DaVante Adams has returned to practice for the Packers as of Monday so we can pretty rationally expect him to be back when they take the field next. This will probably put a slight damper on the Robert Tonyan hype train and if there was ever a thought that another Packers WR would break out, that thought has now departed.
–Dirk Koetter is retaining his job as the offensive coordinator of the Falcons departure of Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff. Personally, I am viewing this as a positive for the offense. They will hopefully get Julio Jones back for their next game and Koetter is famously a very pass-heavy coach. Getting the team away from grinding Todd Gurley on the ground is going to be the best change they can make.
Week 5+6 Team Level Fantasy Football Analysis And Player Usage Notes
-Last year one of my favorite things in fantasy football was using the Air Yards charts (that are normally found from AirYards.com but with the NFL working through some data issue at the moment, are instead from AddMoreFunds.com for right now) to create something I called the “Unrealized Air Yards” chart as well as “Unrealized Fantasy Points” which was basically just to see how many fantasy points wide receivers were leaving on the field. The formula is not tricky, it is just Air Yards subtracted by actual yards as well as yards after the catch.
This is the table after 4.9 weeks of football (Titans & Bills still have a Week 5 game):
–Some fantasy-relevant observations: AJ Green still being at the top of this list is legitimately hilarious; no player is helping their team less right now than AJG. Marquise Brown remains the best buy low in fantasy football especially as the Ravens continue to turn to the air more aggressively than in 2019. There is more room than I expected for Hayden Hurst’s role to grow with Julio Jones ailing and Calvin Ridley remains a buy high in all formats.
-The year that LRQB died might be 2020. Just like there are clear top tiers at RB, WR and TE, there is emerging a clear top-tier of QBs that actually make a difference in fantasy and cannot be fixed by streaming the best available options each week. Look at how many QB’s are averaging over 25 FPPG and then list how many are below 20 FPPG. The pass-only QB is going the way of the dodo in fantasy football. Sending trade offers for Dak, Kyler and Cam is completely legitimate in the context of fantasy this season.
–Don’t look now but Ronald Jones, Myles Gaskin, Mike Davis, James Robinson, Devin Singletary, and Darrell Henderson are all in the top-50 in expected points from Rotoviz. The Zero RB strategy has some monster hits this season as the likes of Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Derrick Henry and other top drafted RBs have cratered for #RobustRB teams. My conclusions after watching 5 weeks of action unfold is that the thesis statement that 2020 was a uniquely good year for the Modified Zero RB style of drafting has largely proved to be correct because of how fragile ALL rosters have been.