Week Three Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Week Three Fantasy Football Workshop: Win Your League
Every week in the fantasy football workshop, I will go through all the important news + notes, take a look at any important statistical oddities that can improve our process in fantasy football (and help our rosters) while also posting my rest-of-season rankings. The idea behind this space is to give readers an insight into how rankings are made and for all of us to keep track of players’ values throughout the course of the season.
Week Two Fantasy Football News And Notes
-Where too even begin with all of the chaos? I want to make one strategic point before getting into the guts of the injuries and other news + notes. It seems reasonable to expect that with the weird training camp and no preseason, we are likely to see many more injuries than in a normal season. We saw this with professional baseball and the NFL is mirroring that reality. My general strategic advice is to be more conservative early with waiver dollars than in any other year. There could be potential league-winning waiver claims almost every week if RBs continue to go down at this rate.
-With Drew Lock out, the Denver Broncos have signed Blake Bortles to a one-year contract as their third-string QB. Given what we have seen from Jeff Driskel at the NFL level, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bortles get a start by Week Five. He does offer some rushing upside when he plays and I would add him for $1 bids in some deeper superflex formats.
– Devonta Freeman has reportedly worked out with the New York Giants after SaQuon Barkley tore his ACL. If he passes his CoVid test, Freeman will be a member of the Giants. Assuming that he passes his test, this basically limits any interest in Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman. Gallman for $1 is my favorite Giants WW bid.
– Despite a hand injury, Malcolm Brown IS expected to play in Week Three for the Rams. Given how much the team relied on him in a competitive game in Week One, we have to temper our expectations for Darrell Henderson. There are similar reports that Cam Akers is going to try and play as well but with separated rib cartilage, I am much less optimistic.
– With Courtland Sutton out for the season, I would send out dynasty trade offers for him. Unlike SaQuon and CMC, you might actually get a discount on a player that you will be able to for the next 5+ years. At the same time, we will also get a good evaluation window on K.J Hamler.
– With Tevin Coleman expected to miss multiple weeks and Raheem Mostert out for at least one week, Jamycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson Jr. are going to get their chance to audition for meaningful roles inside of the run-heavy 49ers offense. Hasty, as a solid pass-catcher in college, is particularly interesting.
– Parris Campbell is more than likely not going to return for the Indianapolis Colts this season despite the fact that he has not been placed on the long-term IR. As someone who was ambivalent of Michael Pittman Jr., it is actually sort of nice to know early if he has any long-term breakout potential.
– An under-reported injury is Sterling Shepherd under-going an MRI for a toe injury. Shepherd is one of the best route-runners in the NFL but has basically never been healthy in his pro career. Evan Engram and Darius Slayton are going to get as much volume as Daniel Jones can get to them.
– The Titans coaching staff was not willing to say that A.J Bron was going to play in Week Three. While this is a big bummer for teams that need him, we’d probably rather him try to get fully healthy as opposed to getting back too early. Corey Davis remains startable as long as Brown is out.
– Chris Godwin has cleared concussion protocol. This doesn’t mean that he is a lock to play this upcoming week but we can probably expect him too.
Week Two Team Level Fantasy Football Analysis And Player Usage Notes
-Last year one of my favorite things in fantasy football was using the Air Yards charts (that are normally found from AirYards.com but with the NFL working through some data issue at the moment, are instead from AddMoreFunds.com for right now) to create something I called the “Unrealized Air Yards” chart as well as “Unrealized Fantasy Points” which was basically just to see how many fantasy points wide receivers were leaving on the field. The formula is not tricky, it is just Air Yards subtracted by actual yards as well as yards after the catch.
This is the table after Week Two:
– A few players on this list worth monitoring are Jerry Jeudy, Michael Gallup, Henry Ruggs and especially Jalen Reagor. With players like Mike Williams and A.J Green, we have enough of a profile and history to make reasonable decisions that mostly bring us in line with the market on them. The younger wide receivers, like Gallup or Ruggs are going to have WAY more volatility in how they are viewed in your given league and are fantastic examples of players to actually buy low on. There is a very good chance that your leaguemates might even be ready to drop guys like Ruggs or Reagor who have not scored well in fantasy yet.
–My good friend TJ Hernandez from 4for4.com continues to do great work and published a chart on Twitter this week that detailed the percentage of every teams’ backfield touches and who handled those touches:
-Noteworthy takeaways for running back splits moving forward are that Gus Edwards might be a sneaky waiver wire add. Not only did he play more than Dobbins in Week Two but the team might even view him as sort of a co-starter with Mark Ingram. Kerryon Johnson has re-risen from the dead and is worth a small claim this week and James Conner has re-taken the mantle in the Steelers backfield. Darwin Thompson saw a rise in his playing time in Week Two is, in my mind, a very interesting $0 bid this week.
-Quarterback scoring is basically on pace for 2011 levels. There are TEN quarterbacks who are averaging over 22 fantasy points per game and five QBs who are averaging over 28 fantasy points per game (both in six points per passing TD formats). To put that in context, only Lamar Jackson averaged over 22 fantasy points per game last season at the QB position. The actionable takeaway from this? We are starting to get some early returns that there are actually haves and have nots at the QB position. With Lamar/Dak/Mahomes/Josh Allen/Kyler/Deshaun/Russ running so much, having a pass-only QB is real disadvantage.
– There was much ado about the death of the tight end position last year in fantasy with only six tight ends seeing over 100 targets but early on, the position is having a bit of a renaissance. Of the top 30 WR+TEs in fantasy points, seven of the thirty are tight ends. There are 20 tight ends who have scored over 10 FPPG in PPR leagues through two games and 16 tight ends who have seen at least 10 targets. Of course, over the next month, this stuff will level out but I am incredibly encouraged by the start of the year for Noah Fant, T.J Hockenson and Mike Gesicki.