Sunday’s MLB slate finishes up on ESPN as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox go head-to-head at Fenway Park with Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello on the mound for their respective teams. This is the third game of a four-game set.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
More Odds in SportsGrid’s MLB Odds Tool
New York Yankees: -112
Boston Red Sox: -102
New York Yankees -1.5: +126
Boston Red Sox +1.5: -148
Over 11: -116
Under 11: -106
What to Watch For
Red Sox Outlook:
Boston is practically eliminated from the postseason, but they can still play spoiler for the remainder of the season. And beating the Yankees in what is a storied rivalry is always important – regardless of playoff hopes. Last time out, Rick Porcello gave up eight hits and six runs in just four innings pitched vs the Minnesota Twins. In 25 career starts vs NY, he is 11-9 in a 3.71 ERA.
NY vs Porcello:
The Yankees’ current roster has a .261 batting average vs Porcello.
Struggles at Fenway:
New York is just 1-4 in their last five on the road at Fenway Park.
Boston is 6-2 in its last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. They are also 67-25 in their last 92 of a game 3 in a series.
Betting on the Money Line:
Odds indicate the home team has a 50-to-51 percent chance to win this Sunday matchup; simulation data has that probability up at 57 percent, indicating some added side value on the pick. We’re always intrigued when simulation data and odds-makers have different takes on the projected winner.
Masahiro Tanaka is projected to pitch five-plus innings for New York, giving up seven hits and four runs. The Red Sox average 1.16 HRs off Tanaka.
Rick Porcello is projected to pitch a similar five-plus innings, giving up seven hits and three-to-four runs. The Yankees average 1.43 HRs off Porcello.
Four-star (out of four) hot-trend pick alert here. Odds indicate there is a 53.7 percent chance the total combined score goes over 11. That happens in a similar percentage of simulations. The average combined score in sims is 12.9 runs.
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