MLB Betting Guide: World Series Game 6
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.
Dodgers Moneyline (-138): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a shot to close out the Tampa Bay Rays tonight in Game 6, and our model projects them to do just that even though the starting pitching matchup — Blake Snell versus Tony Gonsolin — tilts in favor of the Rays.
While Snell is a stud, one of his weaknesses makes the Dodgers a tough matchup for him. Snell can be very inefficient, at times, and the Dodgers have a lineup full of patient, grind-it-out hitters. Couple those things with Tampa Bay’s tendency to prevent Snell from racking up a lot of pitches, and it could be a short night for the ace lefty even if he’s dealing.
That played out in Game 2 start of this series. Snell was plowing through the Dodgers and fanned nine, but he tossed just 88 pitches and was yanked after 4 2/3 frames. In that one, the Rays’ excellent bullpen held LA to only two runs and three total baserunners over the final 4 1/3 innings on the way to a 6-4 Tampa Bay win.
Gonsolin started that Game 2, leading off a bullpen game that saw the Dodgers run out seven different hurlers. We’ll likely get a similar situation today, especially with the LA ‘pen fresh and ready to roll after Monday’s off day.
In truth, our model sees very little betting value anywhere in this game as our numbers and the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook line up pretty closely. The biggest trend in the betting market — as of Tuesday morning — is that sharp bettors are all over LA on the moneyline. Per our oddsFire tool, 66% of moneyline bets are on the Rays but 63% of the cash on the moneyline is backing the Dodgers.
Our model sides with the sharps and has the Dodgers winning 58.9% of the time. A -138 moneyline implies win odds of 58%, so there’s nothing too fun about this one, but if you’re wanting to put some money down on this game, this is likely the best bet.