Although Pittsburgh struggled offensively vs St. Louis, they've been relatively hot recently. They are averaging close to 6 runs per game in their last 11 overall.
This is Dario Arazal's first year in the majors, having gone 4-4 overall in his 11 starts. More recently, he is 2-1 with a 7.53 ERA in his last three starts.
The Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record, and 8-1 in their last 9 vs teams in the NL West.
Dario Agrazal is projected to pitch five innings for the Pirates, giving up six hits and two-to-three runs in that stretch. The Giants averages 0.68 HRs off Agrazal.
On the other side, Logan Webb is projected to pitch a shade under five innings, giving up close to eight hits and three-to-four runs. The Pirates average 0.72 HRs per sim off Webb.
Pirates to win.
Three-star (out of four) hot-trend pick alert here. Odds indicate there is a 44 percent chance Pittsburgh wins this matchup. They end up winning over 58 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.
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