5/31 MLB DFS Picks: Rock-ie Amadeus
5/31 MLB DFS Picks: Rock-ie Amadeus
DailyRoto's MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 5/31 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first - Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight's action.
Where to Focus?
The overwhelming flurry of day games is finally behind us. Despite having a full day to digest tonight's slate, the focus is essentially unchanged. With a game in Coors Field, our attention is once again turned to Colorado. The Reds and Rockies will continue their series by throwing out Jon Moscot and Jon Gray respectively. Despite an ERA approaching six, Jon Gray has shown the brilliance typically associated with a highly touted prospect. He's pitched to a 3.14 xFIP while striking out well over one hitter per inning. While the Reds lineup leaves a lot to be desired, it's difficult to completely throw a team out when they are playing in Coors. Joey Votto ($8,400) has struggled, but he's been dealt some bad luck with a career low BABIP. His skills against right-handed pitching are too great to overlook such an accessible price tag. Other Reds in consideration are Zack Cozart ($7,200), Jay Bruce ($8,800), and Adam Duvall ($8,400). The trio enjoys the greatest run scoring environment of them all, yet are priced like they are playing elsewhere.
The Rockies side of the equation is much more enticing and accordingly, much more pricey. Jon Moscot is a flyball arm that doesn't record any strikeouts and allows a lot of hard contact. Couple that with a lack of command and you have a recipe for disaster in Coors Field. All of the top Rockies are in play, but the most valuable remain Gerrardo Parra ($7,800) and Mark Reynolds ($7,600). Both should get top six lineup spots and are priced well below that of the average player in Coors Field. Piecing together a pair of Reds with this duo will allow you to grab Blackmon ($9,900), Carlos Gonzalez ($10,200) or Nolan Arenado ($10,400) as well.
Outside of Coors Field all eyes should be on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are receiving a solid positive park shift in their journey to Miller Park and they get the luxury of facing right-hander Wily Peralta. Peralta was able to squeeze his way through a matchup with the Atlanta Braves, but has badly beaten up by the rest of the league. He's pitched to a 4.75 xFIP while walking nearly four hitters per nine and striking out less than the league average. Plus, Peralta has allowed a hard hit rate of 35% while only inducing soft contact 13.7% of the time. The Cardinals have produced some of the league's best numbers against right-handed pitching and that trend should continue tonight. Aside from Matt Carpenter ($9,900) and Stephen Piscotty ($10,200) the rest of the team can be had for clearance rack price tags. Enjoy the feast.
On the Bump…
Anytime Jake Arrieta ($25,200) takes the mound, he instantly becomes the slate's top option. Arrieta doesn't have the same strikeout projection that some of the other elite arms do, but just under a strikeout per inning goes quiet nicely with a well above average groundball rate and a ton of soft contact. While Arrieta has managed to receive more soft contact than hard this year, he's also managed to keep his SwStr% above ten percent and keep his command in check despite an increase in his walk rate. The Dodgers don't project to strikeout a ton, but their offense isn't particularly threatening.
If you're looking for more strikeouts but a bit more volatility, a trip down the east coast will get you Jose Fernandez ($24,000) at a bit of a discount. Fernandez has managed to improve upon his command a bit in recent starts and is still sitting hitters down at an elite rate (36.7% K%). While the Pirates are a difficult and pesky offense to deal with, Fernandez will neutralize the platoon advantage on most of the Pirates hitters and his success against right-handers shouldn't go overlooked. In his career, right-handers have posted a .211 wOBA against Fernandez. Furthermore, he's posted a 2.35 xFIP, 11.96 K/9 and only 1.81 BB/9 against righties in that timeframe. He comes with nearly unlimited upside, but the Marlins are always a bit cautious and because of the strikeouts and high pitch counts he rarely works super deep into games. A tradeoff for efficiency is the massive uptick in strikeouts, a trade that you'll want to make.
Staying in the National League East, there are plenty of other starting pitching options tonight. Steven Matz ($21,600) goes for the New York Mets against the Chicago White Sox who are taking a negative park shift and are losing the DH heading to the National League Park. Matz has been excellent so far this season, recording over a strikeout per inning despite a SwStr% less than the league average. Regardless, he's shown the ability to induce a lot of groundballs and not much hard contact while pitching to an xFIP below three. While the price isn't reduced much, he still offers a savings over the top two options.
Finally, Joe Ross ($16,400) and Aaron Nola ($20,400) square off against each other in the City of Brotherly Love. While Nola has been more impressive so far this season, the matchup and the price tag have me leaning in the direction of Ross. Ross comes at a huge discount and gets a matchup with a hapless Philadelphia lineup that will hopefully feature a majority of right-handed hitters. Ross has been really tough on right-handers, only allowing a .226 wOBA to them in his short time in the big leagues. His struggles have instead come to the opposite handedness, who have posted a wOBA of .343 while striking out less and walking more often. I'll prefer to pay for two at the top, but if the Phillies fill out a lineup with five or six right-handed hitters, Ross should be in play.
Be the first to know
Want FREE Fantasy and Gaming Advice and Savings Delivered to your Inbox? Sign up for our Newsletter.