7/5 MLB DFS Picks: Young Will Be Restless
7/5 MLB DFS Picks: Young Will Be Restless
DailyRoto's MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 7/5 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first - Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight's action.
Where to focus?
The fireworks are over, but fortunately the MLB DFS season lives on. With a near full slate of games there is no shortage of offensive options tonight. Despite being without slugger Jose Bautista, the Toronto Blue Jays draw one of the juiciest matches of the night facing flyable extremist Chris Young in their home park. Young hasn't found much success this season, pitching to a 5.29 xFIP while walking close to five hitters per nine. His time in Kansas City has largely been aided by a stellar defense and a big ball park, but nothing has been able to hold in his flyballs this season as he's followed up his poor command with a high dosage of home runs, allowing 3.86 HR/9. The Blue Jays don't quite pack the same punch, but you'll still be able to find some relatively solid values. Ezequiel Carrera ($7,200) should man the leadoff spot and Michael Saunders ($8,400) should bookend the dangerous duo of Edwin Encarnacion ($10,400) and Josh Donaldson ($10,800). The Blue Jays implied run total is the highest on the slate and for good reason.
While the Blue Jays might be the most obvious offensive weaponry tonight, there are plenty of other options around the league. The Boston Red Sox draw a home matchup with AJ Griffin in what should be a fun night for the home crowd. Griffin has found a way to be effective so far this season, but he'll have to be perfect to get by an offense that ranked first in wRC+, wOBA and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitchers. The Red Sox implied run total is just lower than that of the Blue Jays but their propensity for home runs will remain in the same sphere as Griffin is also an extreme flyball arm. Fitting David Ortiz ($10,000) would be the ultimate goal, but all of the Red Sox surrounding Big Papi are firmly in play tonight.
The last prime matchup on the slate belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks draw a home matchup with soft-tossing left-hander, Christian Friedrich. The southpaw has maneuvered around more than 30% hard contact and a 4.77 xFIP to stick around in the Padres rotation and for our sake, that is good news. Friedrich has actually managed to increase his strikeout rate despite a drop in velocity, but with that increase has come a lack of command (nearly five walks per nine). Furthermore, he presents a juicy opportunity for the right-handed hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup as he's allowed a .372 wOBA to right-handers in his career to go along with 1.22 HR/9. Paul Goldschmidt's ($10,500) career .435 wOBA and .265 ISO should put him at the top of all offensive options tonight while Wellington Castillo ($8,800) and the rest of the right-handers provide a cheaper way to get exposure to a great run-scoring environment in Chase Field.
Aside from the three top offenses on the slate, the Oakland Athletics strike me as a mini-stack option to complement either of the more notable offensive stacks. The A's draw a notable positive park shift and a road matchup with left-hander Tommy Milone in Target Field. Milone has never been an arm opposing hitters feared and this season is just more of the same. He's allowed 1.78 HR/9 and a .386 wOBA to right-handed hitters in a short time on the mound this season. If the weather holds, the powerful duo of Danny Valencia ($7,500) and Khris Davis ($8,800) make for a solid, contrarian tandem for tournaments.
On the Bum…
If you think I can't spell, please note that the title of this section was purposely spelled without the ‘p.' That is because Madison Bumgarner ($22,800) is the bread and butter of the pitching options tonight. Bumgarner draws a home matchup with the Colorado Rockies who are in the midst of the biggest negative park shift possible in baseball. Not only are they forced to leave their offensive-friendly home, but they'll have to face an arm that has managed to strikeout just less than ten hitters per nine innings while racking up a 2.20 ERA. Bumgarner has allowed a career high hard hit rate against, but the nature of this game makes him an impossible fade, especially in cash games. The Rockies have the lowest implied run total on the slate and Bum is a (-217) huge favorite at home tonight. Lock him in and go from there!
The next best starting pitcher on the slate is right-hander Carlos Carrasco ($22,200). Carrasco doesn't quite draw the same matchup, but the upside agains a Tigers team that strikes out the seventh most against right-handers (22.4%) is something to strongly consider tonight. Carrasco is just another “ace” in this Indians' rotation, pitching to a 3.15 xFIP while striking out just under one hitter per inning and getting more than 50% groundballs. The Tigers are still a formidable offense, but much less so against right-handers so he won't be as safe as Bumgarner, but a pairing of the two would make for a dominant start to a cash game or tournament roster.
If you're looking for cheaper alternatives to pair with Bumgarner though, perhaps Gio Gonzalez ($15,300) or Steven Matz ($16,000) fits the bill. Gonzalez draws a matchup with a strikeout heavy Milwaukee Brewers team (23.9% against southpaws) that has built up the fifth worst wRC+ against left-handers this season. Gio has managed to keep his command in check this season while still boasting a notable strikeout rate and if he can do the same tonight he'll make for a solid complement to Bumgarner. The Nationals are home favorites (-164) and the Brewers have an implied run total of just 3.7 runs. Matz is perhaps a bit riskier given his injury situation, but his price is too nice to ignore. While the Marlins are a bit more contact oriented against right-handers, they've racked up the tenth highest strikeout percentage against southpaws this season while posting a wRC+ in the bottom third of the league. His strikeout rate isn't quite as high as Gio's, but if run prevention is any sort of tie breaker, the nod belongs to Matz.