7/7 MLB DFS Picks: Arenado, Is Going Over The Fences…
7/7 MLB DFS Picks: Arenado, Is Going Over The Fences...
DailyRoto's MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 7/5 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first - Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight's action.
Where to focus?
If I told you Adam Morgan was starting a game in Coors Field, would you be interested? I'm sure you would be and if you've been craving it, tonight is your lucky night. Morgan and the Phillies will travel to Coors Field to take on Chad Bettis and the Colorado Rockies. While even the Phillies have mustered an implied run total above five runs for tonight's game, the Rockies are the true target. Morgan is a flyball pitcher that has been torched by the home run (1.91 HR/9) so far this season and I don't foresee his luck changing on that front tonight. He's allowed a whopping 37.3% hard hit rate against and has been badly damaged by both lefties and righties. Nolan Arenado ($10,500) and his .403 wOBA and .268 ISO against righties this season has me most intrigued, but really any of the Rockies that find their way into the lineup are in play. Given the fact that Morgan is a southpaw, you should also see a start from Ryan Raburn ($7,800) as a valuable filler.
The Rockies and Phillies will be the focus of everyone tonight, so where should you be looking to differentiate yourself? Try taking a shot with the Texas Rangers against Tyler Duffey. Duffey is by no means the worst starting pitcher on the slate, but anytime you can take advantage of an arm that allows a lot of hard contact at low ownership, it's worth a shot. The Rangers have an implied run total of over five runs and are backed with much more accessible price tags than those that accompany the players in Coors Field. From Shin-soo Choo ($9,600) all the way through Rougned Odor ($9,200) this lineup has a good chance to thrive tonight.
The Chicago Cubs haven't been much of an offensive powerhouse in the last few weeks of the season, but things could turn around in their matchup with journeyman right-hander Lucas Harrell. Harrell has always struggled mightily with his command and if it continues tonight, that'll be a big problem for the righty as the Cubs still lead the entire league in BB%. Getting guys on via the free pass is always a great start to any potential stack and a team as powerful as the Cubs can certainly make a pitcher pay. Kris Bryant ($10,800) might be a little out of range, but the rest of the Cubs have fairly accessible price tags.
On the Bump…
The starting pitching situation isn't quite as fun as the offensive options tonight. Drew Pomeranz ($22,800) is the most expensive starting pitcher tonight and his matchup with the Dodgers warrants his usage. The Dodgers have built up the third worst wRC+ this season against left-handers and while they're in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage, Pomeranz own ability should be sufficient. The left-hander has racked up over ten strikeouts per nine innings while pitching to a 2.65 ERA and a 3.59 xFIP. His lone issue has been command and while the Dodgers rank tenth in the league in terms of walk percentage against southpaws, it's a risk you'll have to eat to reap the rewards of his potential tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($20,100) is finally back to the Dodgers rotation and will be opposite Pomeranz tonight, but whether or not he'll be able to work deep enough to be worth his price tag is a question that should keep him out of the cash game conversation. Ryu has posted solid career numbers in the big leagues, and his matchup with the Padres should put him on your radar, but reserve his usage for tournaments.
A few slots below Ryu in price, Trevor Bauer ($19,200) draws a home matchup with the New York Yankees. Taking advantage of a negative park shift, Bauer will look to exploit the Yankees both third offense in terms of wRC+ against right-handers. He's managed to improve his command and groundball rates so far this season and if he can keep it up, the strikeout potential will push him into a solid option tonight. The Yankees implied run total is just under four runs, indicating that Bauer is not the safest option in terms of run prevention, but given the lack of depth tonight he might find his way into your lineups.
Earlier this season, using Jason Hammel ($14,800) against the Atlanta Braves would have been a no-brainer. Unfortunately, we've hit the point in the season where things start to deteriorate for Hammel, forcing us to reconsider rostering him even in situations like these. The Braves have continued to be putrid against right-handed pitching, posting the worst wRC+ in the league, however, their contact oriented ways have them striking out less than 20% of the time against righties. In his last five starts, Hammel has amassed more than six strikeouts per nine just one time and he's allowed under 28% hard contact just twice. There is yet to be a total set on this game, but Hammel remains a large favorite (-255) and might just force you to roster him tonight.
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