3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Zach LaVine Under 25.5 Points (-110)
Zach LaVine has only gone over this total in two of his last seven meetings with Charlotte Hornets, but everyone seems to only remember the 49-point effort. Indeed it was a fantastic game and come back for the Chicago Bulls but betting on him is tough for this matchup. He’s in the midst of 30 or more points in six of the previous seven games overall, but Charlotte has done well-defending shooting guards this season.
LaVine has been instrumental to the Bulls’ recent success, but Charlotte allows the eighth-fewest points per game to shooting guards (21.41). At some point, LaVine’s streak will come to an end, and with the Bulls and Hornets primarily a low-scoring outcome, I’d back LaVine to go Under tonight. LaVine has been very three-ball dependent this season, and the Hornets allow 34.5% of opponents’ three-balls to drop, the fifth-best in the league. I expect 20 points from LaVine but not willing to take the 26 confidently.
Jerami Grant Over 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110)
Jerami Grant has played so well this season that his name needs to be thrown into the Most Improved Player conversation. It’s quite early for that kind of talk, but if he can keep it up, he’ll be a hot commodity on futures bets. Currently, Grant is averaging 25.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on the season and at home, his numbers increase to 26.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game.
Christian Wood for the Houston Rockets is out, leaving Grant in line for a potentially monster game. The Detroit Pistons up and coming forward has scored over 20 points in 13-straight games this season with three double-doubles. Grant has attempted 19 or more field goals in five-straight and made 10 or more in three-straight. Our model projects him to total 23.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, cutting it close, but I love it with Wood out.
Paul George Over 22.5 Points (-106)
Paul George has met the Oklahoma City Thunder three times since being traded to the Los Angeles Clippers, he’s yet to go over this total. This game’s spread is -13 as well, making a case for a blowout and reduced minutes because of it. However, George is coming off 19 and 20-point performances, and the last time he scored under 20 points in two-straight, he followed up with 23 points. The Thunder allow the 10th-most points per game to small forwards on the season (22.61), and George is looking for a strong performance.
George scored 20 or more in nine-straight games before his 19-point performance in his last outing. George has only played 30, 32, and 34 minutes in the previous three games after 38, 39, and 40 in three prior. Expect George to have some energy early and to come out swinging, similar to Kawhi Leonard versus the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. Our model projects George to score 22.9 points, pushing the over.