3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/4/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Julius Randle Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)
Julius Randle started the season on a hot streak but has suddenly cooled off over the last two games. Randle was posting 24.7 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists for a 42.7 PRA average, but in the past two games versus the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors, Randle was contained for 14.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game for a 31.0 average. His next opponent, the Atlanta Hawks, haven’t fared well versus power forwards, but tonight they catch Randle in a favorable spot.
On the road, Randle has averaged 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.3 assists (37.1 PRA), and on one day of rest, similar numbers round out to a 37.7 PRA average. His PRA total is a little too high, and while I don’t doubt that Randle has a good game, a struggle on the boards or cold stretches scoring will happen.
Atlanta’s trio of Clint Capela, John Collins, and Bruno Fernando is nothing to take lightly. Capela’s minutes have steadily increased to 30 and 31 minutes over the last two games, which will hurt Randle’s value tonight.
Our model predicts Randle to total 21.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 43.0 minutes — a 37.1 PRA average, hitting the under.
Steven Adams Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)
Steven Adams has strung together two solid starts, earning his first two double-doubles of the season. Adams has gone over this 22.5 PRA total by combining for 23 and 26 versus the Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder. He failed to hit this number in four straight games before that.
Tonight, Adams meets the Pacers’ duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, two capable defenders and rebounders. However, Adams has gone over this total in six of his last seven meetings with the Pacers, an absurd streak versus a well-known defensive team.
In the last two meetings, Adams went a perfect 8-of-8 from the field, and In the other, he totaled 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 assist, but that was a 111-85 loss. Adams has double-doubled in four of the last six meetings and posted at least eight rebounds in six of the previous seven. The Pacers allow opposing centers to score the 11th-most rebounds per game (15.99), and if Adams can reach double-digit scoring like he’s done in seven of the last eight games versus them, this should be a trendy bet.
Our model predicts Adams to record 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists, totaling 22.5 on the number.
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138)
Stephen Curry is fresh off a career-high 62 points on 31 field-goal attempts, with 16 from three and another 19 free throws on top of that. His point total tonight is 30.5, which is tempting, but he hasn’t been consistent following games of 40-points or more, and the fact he doesn’t have Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson makes that stat kind of skewed, so here’s another way of betting the former MVP tonight.
Curry has rebounded well in just about every game to start the season, and in his last three games, he’s recorded five or more. He had games of two, four, and four rebounds in his first three games, still cutting it close in two of three.
At home versus the Sacramento Kings, Curry is in a favorable spot to be aggressive on the boards if his shot isn’t falling, and we all know he loves his long rebounds and outlet passes. In his last six meetings with Sacramento, Curry has had five or more rebounds in all six games. In 33 career games, Curry averages 4.9 rebounds versus the Kings, and our model projects him at the same 4.9 total tonight.
Curry averaged 5.1 rebounds at home in 2018-19, 5.4 in 2017-18, and in total, he’s averaged 5.1 rebounds or more in a season since 2016-17. He’s only had one year prior to that with more than five rebounds per game. In back to backs, Curry averaged 5.9 rebounds over eight games in 2018-19, 6.6 in 2017-18 over seven games, and 5.5 boards in 15 games during the 2016-17 season. Curry’s rebounds seem like the safest of all his overs tonight.