3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 12/28/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trae Young Over 8.5 Assists (-140)
Trae Young has opened the season on fire, putting the league on notice with not only his performance but his team’s 2-0 start. Young recorded 36 and 37 points in addition to 7 and 9 assists in his first two games. Young finished second in the Association with 9.3 assists per game last season, trailing only LeBron James‘ 10.2. Young also finished fourth in points per game with 29.6.
Young has combined for 44 and 45 points and assists through two games, and while he’s due to regress from his impressive numbers, Detroit is another quality opponent to keep this train going. Detroit is sitting Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin in this matchup, so the rotations will look very different. He averages 20.2 points and 7.5 assists in six career games with Detroit, leaning me to go with his assists prop over the points and assists total. With the Atlanta Hawks favored by -9.5, a blowout is possible, and Young’s night could end early, keeping him from a 30-point effort. He met Detroit three times last year and recorded seven, eight, and nine assists.
Clint Capela‘s return is possible tonight, and if that happens, Young’s scoring could turn to more assists. Pick and rolls with Capela and John Collins could be a theme, and if so, Young’s looking likely for his first double-double of the season. Our model projects him to record 8.1 assists in 33.4 minutes versus the Detroit Pistons. When Young plays 30-39 minutes, he averages 9.5 assists for his career, and in eight games the Hawks won by more than 10, he averaged 12.0 assists per game.
Damian Lillard Over 3.5 Rebounds (-130)
Damian Lillard hasn’t been known for his rebounding much, but versus the Lakers, he’s found success in the last 17 games, hitting this mark 14 times, including the postseason. Versus the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2020 postseason, he hit the over two out of four games with one contest of three boards. In three regular season meetings last year, Lillard hit the over twice with two games of seven and nine boards. The Portland Trail Blazers are 23rd in rebounds per game (42.5), so they need to hit the boards better through two games, especially in this matchup with the 10th-ranked Lakers (48.0).
For his career versus the Lakers, he’s had 4.2 rebounds per game, and while the speculation of Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol‘s arrival might make you wary of this, the Blazers’ leading rebounder is Enes Kanter (8.5), and Lillard is one of five players to average 4.5 rebounds per game or more through two contests. This season, the Lakers have allowed Patrick Beverley and Paul George to have six rebounds apiece, Malik Beasley to record five, and Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. to each have four. Lillard should be the next to add his name to the list of guards who have grabbed four or more rebounds versus this Lakers squad. Our model projects Lillard to record 4.2 rebounds.
Jonas Valanciunas Under 13.5 Rebounds (-120)
Jonas Valanciunas finished ninth last season with 11.3 rebounds per game but had the fifth-most total boards (788) through 70 games. He’s led the team in rebounds through two contests, posting 12 and 13 rebounds versus the Hawks and the San Antonio Spurs — two teams ranked in the top 10 so far to start the season. He faces another top-10 rebounding team, but there’s a significant difference to their talent level down low between the Hawks and Spurs to the Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets rank seventh in rebounds per game (48.7), while the Grizzlies are 16th (44.0) through two games. To compare, the Spurs don’t have the interior presence the Nets do, and the Hawks haven’t had Capela, so their big man duo wasn’t active for the Valanciunas matchup. The Nets’ Jarrett Allen has recorded 7, 11, and 14 boards through three games, while DeAndre Jordan 7, 11, and 12 boards. Both players are averaging 10.0 or more rebounds through three games and a healthy 22-18 minute split. Brooklyn will give Valanciunas issues throughout the game, and the physicality alone leads me to side with the under for him with a possible 13-rebound performance at best.
The two of them are going to give Valanciunas fits, and if he falls into foul trouble or struggles to score against these two paint defenders, it could be a long night for the Lithuanian big man. Our model gives him 12.2 rebounds with 8.6 defensive and 3.6 offensive, just hitting the under.