3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/7/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Malik Beasley Over 25.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-111)
Malik Beasley has played 38 minutes in the last two games. Both were versus the Denver Nuggets‘ poor defense and resulted in 37 PRA in the first meeting and 25 PRA in the second. Beasley has been right on the line for this prop most of the season, going over 25.5 only two-of-seven games but going under 26 in four-of-five. His issue with those unders? A lack of playing time. In three of those five games, he played fewer than 29 minutes, and our model projects him at 34 tonight.
When Beasley plays over 30 minutes this season, he averages 19.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the worst defenses versus point guards, allowing an NBA-high 35.98 points and 4.68 three-pointers per game. Portland also surrenders the ninth-most rebounds to point guards (7.19) and allow 6.86 assists per game, the fourth-lowest because they score so frequently.
Our model predicts Beasley to record 19.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for 26.6 PRA, hitting the over.
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Assists (-105)
Luka Doncic has averaged 9.0 assists in five career meetings with the Nuggets, but this is probably the worst Denver defense he has faced. Denver allows 116.0 points per game (23rd) and 27.9 assists per game (26th) to their opponents, two very favorable trends for Doncic, who’s coming off a season-high 11 assists. Doncic failed to total more than eight assists in a game to start the season, most likely due to Kristaps Porzingis‘ absence, but over the last two, he’s recorded 7 and 11 assists in two wins.
The Mavericks and Nuggets are both looking for their third straight wins, and with a -2.5 spread in favor of Denver, you figure they’ll need a lot of Doncic to keep it close. In his first meeting with Denver last season, Doncic only had 5 assists, but he recorded 9 and 10 in his next two. During his rookie season, Doncic totaled 9 and 12 assists, hitting the over in four-of-five career meetings with the Nuggets. For his career, Doncic’s 9.0 assists per game in five games versus Denver is the fifth-highest versus any opponent to start his third year.
Our model projects Doncic to have 9.3 assists tonight, hitting the over once again.
Collin Sexton To Score 20 Points and Cavs Win (+240)
Collin Sexton has scored 20 or more points in every game this season, and the Cleveland Cavaliers enter a road match with the Memphis Grizzlies as five-point underdogs. You can find this prop under Player Performance Doubles on FanDuel Sportsbook and shave Sexton’s point value down from 24.5 to 20.0 and the Cavs +5.0 to a straight-up winner.
The Cavs are 4-4 through eight games, while the Grizzlies are 2-5 and last place in the West, not to mention without Ja Morant. With that in mind, Sexton is bound for another 20-point outing, and our model predicts him to score 23.2 points.
The Grizzlies surrender the seventh-most points per game to point guards (26.24). Both teams are on two-game losing streaks, so why not take the underdog along with their best scorer? Our model projects the Grizzlies at 80% to win straight-up, but without Morant, this can still being anyone’s game. The Cavs are 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings and 20-6 in the previous 26 games, so Cleveland has the betting trends in their favor to at least keep it close.