3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 1/5/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-130) and Triple-Double (+120)
Nikola Jokic is leading the league in assists through six games with 12.8 per game. He’s at least double-doubled in every game this season, recording 10 or more assists in all six, and he’s had two games with nine rebounds (double-digits in the other four), just falling short of six triple-doubles rather than four triple-doubles. To no one’s surprise, he’s been a machine and the most consistent player on the Denver Nuggets, but he hasn’t gone over his PRA number of 45.5 in the last two games.
Jokic met Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday and posted his fourth triple-double with 12 assists in 32 minutes. Jokic has played 30 or minutes in every game this year, and our model projects him at 35.44 minutes and 11.4 assists versus Minnesota. The Timberwolves allow the most assists per game (8.01) to centers and the most fantasy points per game (64.58), which means he has an excellent probability of having another strong all-around game. The model projects his full stat line to read 22.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 11.4 assists in 35.44 minutes.
Nikola Jokic to triple-double is also +120, a healthy number since he’s done it four out of six games this season and in the previous meeting with Minnesota. He’s posting a 25.71% usage rate, and since Michael Porter Jr. has been out (two games), Jokic has averaged 18.0 points, 11.5 assists, and 10.5 rebounds in 31 minutes. To open the season, he averaged 24.5 points, 13.5 assists, and 11.5 rebounds in 383.3 minutes through four games, a significant difference.
To play devil’s advocate, Jokic’s 30 and 32 minutes over the last two games are his lowest, and that’s because he was in foul trouble with five fouls apiece in each. But if he stays clear of foul trouble tonight, Jokic could very well be looking at his fifth triple-double in the first seven games.
Damian Lillard Over 27.5 Points (-118)
Damian Lillard has scored 30 or more points in four of five games and two straight for the Portland Trail Blazers. To open the season, not including his nine-point dud in the season opener, he’s averaging 29.8 points per game.
Lillard’s at a 30.32% usage rate for the season, and his matchup is very favorable tonight versus the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls allow the seventh-most points per game (26.27) and the ninth-most three-pointers made per game (3.02) to point guards. In his previous meeting with Chicago in 2019, he scored 28 points on 9-of-18 from the field (50%), 3-of-11 (27.3%), and 7-of-9 (77.8%) from the charity stripe.
In 15 career games versus Chicago, Lillard is only averaging 20.8 points per game, but to his credit, the Bulls don’t have the defense they’ve had in the past. With injuries and lack of depth right now, Lillard should have no issue scoring. With an over/under for the game score set at 234.0 points, it’s implied that it’ll be a high-scoring game with tons of points. If that’s the case, Lillard to go over his point total or lead the game in scoring (+115) are good bets.
Our model predicts Lillard to lead the Association in scoring tonight with 27.2 points versus the Bulls in 36.49 minutes.