3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 12/29/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum Under 7.5 Rebounds (+108)
To start the season, Jayson Tatum has totaled seven, eight, and 11 boards through three games. Last season, he set a career high with 8.7 rebounds per game, and in the postseason, those numbers jumped to 10.0 rebounds over 17 games, including 13 contests of eight boards or more. To open this season, Tatum has totaled two games of eight or more boards in his last two games, including a season-high 11 versus the Indiana Pacers.
But in 11 career meetings against the Pacers, Tatum has totaled seven or fewer rebounds in 10 of those meetings — 10 straight until the last meeting on Sunday. The Boston Celtics face the Pacers against tonight, and the two squads have had a day off between meetings.
In 2019-20, Tatum averaged 6.5 rebounds per game with one day of rest, compared to at least 7.7 on any other split of rest. Indiana is allowing the fourth-fewest rebounds per game (40.3). The Pacers have six players who average at least 4.0 rebounds, and the Celtics have five. In the first meeting between the two teams, only Tatum and Tristan Thompson recorded more than seven rebounds (eight), and in this meeting, I expect more than four rebounds from the next closer Celtic.
Our model projects Tatum to record 7.7 rebounds, making this a close call, but this is worth a shot for the payout and history versus Indiana.
Khris Middleton Over 20.5 Points (-106)
Khris Middleton has opened the season on fire for the Milwaukee Bucks, recording 22, 27, and 31 points through three games. In two of three games, he has made 50% or more of his shots, and he’s attempted 15, 18, and 20 field goals in each game. He’s up against the Miami Heat today, and versus Miami in last year’s postseason, Middleton scored 23 or more points in four out of five meetings as well as in two of three regular-season meetings with Miami. In the regular season, Middleton scored 12, 25, and 33 points, and across all eight 2019-20 meetings, including the postseason, he went over 20.5 points six times.
Last year was the second season of his career in which he scored at least 20 points per game, and to start 2020-21, Middleton is pouring in 26.7 per game. Miami allows the fifth-most three-pointers per game to small forwards (3.42), and if Middleton’s triple is falling, he could be in for another big scoring night.
Our model pegs Middleton at 20.2 points versus the Heat, but his fast start to the season plus his success against Miami last year pushes me to the over.
Bradley Beal Over 29.5 Points (-116)
Bradley Beal nailed three triples to open the season but failed to hit that mark the past two games. This is an excellent opportunity for him to get back to draining threes as the Chicago Bulls allow shooting guards to make the fifth-most made three-pointers per game (4.25) as well as the eighth-most to point guards (3.62). Beal has gotten buckets for the Washington Wizards, leading them in scoring all three games with 29, 31, and 39 points to open the season.
The Bulls allow the fifth-most points per game to point guards (31.98) and rank 19th versus shooting guards (23.96). Beal met the Bulls four times last season, scoring 21, 22, 30, and 53 points. Beal has made a killing at the free-throw line this season, going 24 of 29 (82.7%). When he played at least 30 minutes in 2019-20, Beal averaged 30.9 points per game, and he’s played a minimum of 36 minutes in each game to open this season.
Our model forecasts Beal to score 29.1 points in 35.3 minutes, so this line is basically even with our projection. This should be a competitive game — 5.5-point spread (in favor of Washington) — with plenty of points (230.0 total), so Beal is in a great spot for a big scoring night. I lean toward the over.