3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/6/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ben Simmons Under 9.5 Rebounds (-130)
Ben Simmons has been on fire over the last four games, recording 10 or more boards, double-doubling in all four, and triple-doubling in one. He’s been a cornerstone for the Philadelphia 76ers this year offensively and defensively, but his rebound totals have skyrocketed compared to the first three games. He opened the season with 9 rebounds in two straight and then hauled in 6 before four straight of 10 or more. Simmons is excelling in his new role, but at some point, his double-double streak will come to a halt.
Simmons is projected to total 5.9 rebounds, well under what he’s been doing this season by our model. He met the Washington Wizards without Rui Hachimura in the season opener and grabbed nine boards. Hachimura recorded two, four, and five rebounds in his first three games, nothing to wow you, but his presence in games of 25 and 33 minutes limited to the Chicago Bulls big men all under six rebounds and half of the Brooklyn Nets duo under 10 boards.
The Wizards also surrendered double-digit rebounds to small forwards in the two games Hachimura played well, and Tobias Harris is more than capable of taking boards away from Simmons. This number would have been appealing for the over at 8.5, but after four straight double-doubles with points and rebounds, it’s time to start fading Simmons.
Lonzo Ball Over 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122)
Lonzo Ball had an impressive first meeting with the Oklahoma City Thunder, totaling 16 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds. For the second meeting, he’s had two games in between averaging 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists versus the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors. Both Indiana and Toronto have stellar defensive and offensive guard duos, but we cannot say the same for the Thunder. Ball is in a favorable spot to feed his teammates and be aggressive on the boards.
In his first four games, Ball has averaged 12.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 31.0 minutes. Over the last two games, Ball has played 35 and 38 minutes, his two highest totals of the season. One was in overtime, but Ball was over 33 minutes, making both games top-three in minutes played this season so far either way.
Our model predicts Ball to play 28.74 minutes, which would be his second-lowest of the season, but I expect the opposite. Ball should see around 35 minutes of action, and if he does, expect an attempt to build off his season-high 18 points and surpass his combined season average of 9.4 rebounds and assists.
Victor Oladipo Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-115)
Victor Oladipo has been shooting the three-ball at a career-high 7.3 attempts per game and 3.3 makes per game (45.5%). He’s been on fire from beyond the arc, making two or more three-pointers in all six games and making four or more in three-of-six games. Oladipo has made two triples in three games this season, and he’s attempted at least five in every game and eight or more over the last three contests. The Houston Rockets allow shooting guards to make 6.26 three-pointers per game, the most in the league.
Oladipo attempted an insane 26 field-goal attempts and 12 three-pointers in last season’s only meeting, making only seven field goals and two three-pointers en route to a 16-point night. It was a rough outing for the Pacers guard, but overall, he’s attempted at least 10 three-pointers in his last three games versus Houston and at least eight in his previous four dating back to 2017-18.
Our model projects Oladipo to connect on 3.2 triples tonight, hitting the over against a Rockets defense that allows opponents to hit 39.3% of their triples, 24th overall in the league.