Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview for NBA Basketball Game
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game Information
Cleveland Cavaliers (4-4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (2-5)
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Forum
TV Coverage: NBA League Pass, Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Southeast
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: (Open: Cavaliers +138 / Grizzlies -165) (Current: Cavaliers +144 / Grizzlies -172)
Spread: (Open: Grizzlies -3.5) (Current: Grizzlies -4)
Total: (Open: 212.5) (Current: 210.5)
NBA Championship Odds: Cavaliers +25000 / Grizzlies +19000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk free for up to $1,000!
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies News and Notes
Cleveland has six players listed on the injury report: Kevin Porter (personal) is expected to be sidelined until Jan 11, Mathew Dellavedova (concussion) is day-to-day, Kevin Love (calf) is out until Jan 18, Dylan Windler (hand) is out until Jan 10, Darius Garland (shoulder) is out until Jan 9, and Dante Exum (calf) is expected to be out until March.
Memphis has five players on the injury report: Killian Tillie (hamstring) has been ruled out for tonight’s game, along with Jontay Porter (knee) and John Kochar (ankle). Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) is expected to be out until Jan 22, while Ja Morant (ankle) won’t return until the end of January.
- The total is 5-0 to the under in their last five meetings in Memphis.
- The total is 4-1 to the under in their last five meetings.
- The total is 6-0 to the under in Cleveland’s last six games.
- The total is 5-0 to the under in Cleveland’s last five games as an underdog.
- The total is 18-3 to the under in the Grizzlies’ last 21 home games.
- The total is 4-1 to the under in the Grizzlies’ last five games as a favorite.
- The total is 8-1 to the under in the Grizzlies’ last nine games when facing a team below .500.
- The total is 4-0 to the under in Cleveland’s last four road games.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions and Picks
If you haven’t figured it out by now, some strong trends are favoring the under in this matchup, but let’s dive into the reason why this is the case.
When I’m considering playing an under in a game, the first three things I want to examine are the pace of play, three-point shooting, and effective field goal percentage. Cleveland is ranked 20th with 103.8 possessions per game as far as pace is concerned, while Memphis is 9th with 106. That suggests that Cleveland fits the classic under team profile, whereas Memphis actually plays faster but would still be classified as an under team based on their results.
Next, if we look at both teams’ three-point shooting, we find that not only does Cleveland make the fewest three-point baskets (9.5) per game, but they’re also second-to-last in the NBA with 27.6 attempts per game. Memphis is a little better than Cleveland in that they’re ranked 25th in three-pointers made per game (10.7) and 20th in three-point attempts per game (32.9). We can now conclude that neither team’s strength is shooting from beyond the arc.
Now, if we examine their effective field goal percentage — which is an adjusted stat to account for the fact that three-point field goals count for three points while field goals only count for two points, we’ll find that both teams are at the bottom of the league in that category. Memphis is dead last with a 49.7% effective field goal percentage, while Cleveland is 27th in the league at 50.3%.
My model projects that this game has a good chance to stay below 200 points, which gives me a significant value at the current total. I’m starting to see some sportsbooks drop this total down a half-point. I would be okay playing this number down to 208, but I won’t wait long to lock the under in at 210.5.
The Pick: Under 210.5