Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview
DALLAS MAVERICKS vs. PHOENIX SUNS GAME INFO
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: PHX Arena
TV Coverage: ESPN
DALLAS MAVERICKS vs. PHOENIX SUNS MONEYLINE, SPREAD, TOTAL, AND ODDS
Moneyline: Suns -112 | Mavericks -104
Spread: Suns -1
Total: 236.5 points
NBA Championship Odds: Mavericks +2200 | Suns +5500
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DALLAS MAVERICKS vs. PHOENIX SUNS NEWS AND NOTES
The big news in this matchup involves Kristaps Porzingis. He’s still recovering from a knee injury, so he’s going to be out for at least the early part of the season. He’s progressed to participating in some non-contact drills during practice, but it still seems like he’s got some work to do before actually suiting up for a game.
The Mavericks were at their best last season, with Porzingis on the court. They increased their Net Rating by +3.6 points per 100 possessions with Porzingis on the court last season (per Cleaning the Glass), and the two-man combo of Porzingis and Luka Doncic outscored opponents by an average of +4.8 points per 100 possessions.
On the other side, Phoenix figures to be vastly improved this season. They came on strong down the stretch last year – they went a perfect 8-0 in the Orlando bubble – and they made one of the biggest additions of the offseason by acquiring Chris Paul. Paul is going to turn 36-years-old this season, but he’s still one of the most impactful players in the league on a per-minute basis. The Thunder increased their Net Rating by +13.8 points with Paul on the court last season, and the only player with a similar impact over a comparable number of minutes was Giannis Antetokounmpo (+13.5).
He should make a huge difference for the Suns and make life easier for the younger players like Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton.
DALLAS MAVERICKS vs. PHOENIX SUNS PREVIEW AND PICK
I don’t understand this spread at all. The Mavericks are probably better than the Suns when both teams are at full strength, but the Suns are the better team with Porzingis out of the lineup. That said, this spread is actually suggesting that the Mavericks are better after adjusting for home-court advantage.
Additionally, the public seems to prefer the Mavericks. They’ve garnered 66% of the spread bets in this contest, so we get the added benefit of getting to fade the public with the Suns. Since 2005, home favorites getting no more than 40% of the public betting tickets have historically posted a record of 620-568-27 against the spread. That isn’t an overwhelming margin, but it does represent a positive return on investment over a large sample size.
The Pick: Suns -1