Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model
DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. UTAH JAZZ NBA GAME INFORMATION
Mavericks (8-10) vs. Jazz (14-4)
Date: Friday, January 29
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Vivint Smart Home Arena
TV Coverage: ESPN
DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. UTAH JAZZ MONEYLINE, SPREAD, TOTAL, AND ODDS
Moneyline: Mavericks +152 | Jazz -180
Spread: Jazz -4
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Mavericks +2200 | Jazz +1800
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DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. UTAH JAZZ NEWS AND NOTES
FanDuel Sportsbook is pricing this game as close to a toss-up, but our betting model doesn’t see it that way. They think the Jazz should win this game more than 80% of the time, and the average margin of victory should be greater than 10 points.
The Jazz are starting to get some respect from the public – that tends to happen when you win nine games in a row – but they’re still probably undervalued. They have surpassed the Lakers for the best record in basketball, and they trail only the Bucks in terms of Net Rating. Overall, they’re outscoring their opponents by an average of +7.96 points per 100 possessions. That’s an elite mark.
The Jazz likely don’t have the same ceiling as some of the top teams in the league come playoff time but make no mistake about it: This is one of the best teams in basketball.
The big question surrounding the Jazz on Friday is whether or not Donovan Mitchell will be able to suit up. He’s currently dealing with a concussion, and he missed Wednesday’s contest vs. the Mavericks.
That said, the Jazz may not need Mitchell to beat the Mavericks. They were able to do that on Wednesday, and some of the advanced metrics suggest that his impact on the team is probably overrated. He’s their top scoring option, but he racks up his points pretty inefficiently. The Jazz were able to make up that scoring production on Wednesday, and they have been significantly better defensively with Mitchell off the court this season.
Add it all up, and the Jazz have actually increased their Net Rating by +13.1 points with Mitchell off the floor.
I’m not saying that the Jazz would be better without Mitchell – far from it – but they can survive his absence in the short term. You need guys like Mitchell to get buckets in the playoffs, but Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and Bojan Bogdanovic can pick up the slack during the regular season.
Regardless of Mitchell’s status, the Jazz appear to be undervalued against a mediocre Mavs’ squad.
DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. UTAH JAZZ PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Mavericks 18.99% | Jazz 81.01%
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: Jazz – 5 stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: Jazz – 5 stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: Under – 1.5 stars
Check Out the SportsGrid Betting Model For Live Odds and Predictions on Updated Odds
Note: The SportsGrid betting model changes throughout the day to adjust for player news and injuries. Be sure to check out the updated model projections as the news continues to break, leading up to game time.