June 9 NBA Betting Guide: Is there Value in the Over?
NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday, June 9
The NBA Semifinals is fully underway as we get a chance to see which teams can adjust to Game 2. However, with the Phoenix Suns hosting the Denver Nuggets, I’ve got my eye on an angle that won’t require any adjustments to be made. So if you like how that sounds, stick around as we preview this matchup from a betting perspective.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Nuggets +184 | Suns -220
Spread: Suns -5.5
NBA Championship Odds: Nuggets +5500 | Suns +800
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns, News, Analysis, and Picks
I was surprised to see this total open around 221.5, but I’m not surprised that it’s currently been bet up. Denver only scored 105 points in Game 1 and only attempted six free throws while the Suns attempted 20. Look for Denver to make the necessary adjustments with more drives to the basket in this game. That will also help to improve the quality of their shots.
Denver made 35% of their three-pointers in Game 1, but the problem is they had 40 attempts. That’s just too many empty possessions against a Suns team that shot 54% from the floor. While Phoenix might not shoot that well in Game 2, I still think they’ll continue to do their share of scoring.
Keep in mind that both teams often played their games over the total this season as Denver is 45-34 to the over while Phoenix is 44-34-1.
There’s certainly a certain rhythm to how these teams like to play, and it should be no surprise that the total is 5-0 to the over in their last five meetings in Phoenix and 6-1 to the over in their last seven meetings overall. Phoenix is also 6-0 to the over in their last six games when facing a team over .500, and Denver is 7-1 to the over in their last eight games.
This number seems too short in this spot as my model projects the total to be closer 228.52 points. As a result, this is too much value for me to pass up, especially with this total currently sitting at 223.
The Bet: Over 223