NBA Betting Guide for 1/22/21: 3 Over/Unders the Betting Trends Like
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets
numberFire’s algorithm is all up on the under in this game.
The posted total is 228.5, but numberFire’s median projected score in this game is 107.2 to 106.5 for the Charlotte Hornets. That’s a point total of just 213.7, so yeah — not that close. The under is 76.9% likely to occur, per our algorithm, and all 25 of our strongest predictions — games most similar to this one historically — hit the posted under.
The Hornets are just 21st in estimated offensive rating (105.7), and the Chicago Bulls are better but are only 13th (108.2). Charlotte is also 8th in estimated defensive rating (106.0). The outlier here is the Bulls’ 28th-ranked defense (111.7 estimated points allowed per 100 possessions).
And lastly, the betting trends like the under here: 54% of the tickets and 61% of the money is on the under. It all aligns for the early-season unders to keep hitting at a solid rate (52.8% so far).
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
Here’s another under on which the data and betting trends agree. oddsFire shows us that 38% of the tickets are on the under in this game — but 67% of the money is on the under. That indicates smart money is jumping on the under so far, yet the total has not yet budged from 217.5 points.
numberFire’s median projected total is just 210.6, so it’s no surprise that the under is a recommended bet (three stars out of five, based on our system). This game rates out as 63.9% likely to stay at 217 or under, suggesting a return of 21.9% on wagers. In total, 22 of the 25 strongest predictors of this game hit the posted under.
Both teams are right around the NBA average in estimated defensive rating (the Indiana Pacers are 16th and the Orlando Magic are 17th), and although the Pacers are 12th in estimated offensive efficiency, the Magic are 28th. Neither team is particularly fast, either, so the paths to the over seem pretty limited overall.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
I’m going to continue following the money and algorithm to a third under of the night. Again, 52.8% of games so far this season have hit the under on the closing posted total.
The under at 222.5 points in this game is a three-star recommendation, per numberFire’s algorithm, and the median score is just 215.3 points. The under is projected to be 64.4% likely to to occur, per our simulations, and only 1 of the 25 strongest predictors hit the over.
My model anticipated an over/under of 215.0 points based on long-term adjusted data. Even looking just at small-sample data from this season, we can make a case for the under. Based on estimated ratings, these are two mid-tier offenses, and the Philadelphia 76ers are a top-five defense.
Although 80% of the betting tickets and 57% of the money is on the over to hit, that means there’s a discrepancy of 23 percentage points between the tickets (20%) and money (43%) on the under.