NBA Betting Guide for 1/6/21: Will the Unders Keep Hitting?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks
I’ve been on a lot of unders this season so far, and that’s going to continue tonight because I’m just out here looking for where the pre-game value is. That’s the whole point. But so far this season, 55.2% of NBA games have hit the under, and the average point total of games (222.7) is 2.1 points below the average closing total on FanDuel Sportsbook. There’s clearly been more value on the unders thus far. It’s a very small sample, but it’s at least been supported so far.
The stars align for another under recommendation. The biggest signal here is that oddsFire shows us a massive discrepancy between the tickets (27%) and the money (87%) on the under for this game, indicating heavy bettors are on the under. The total is trending down from 215.0 to 213.5, but even at the new number, our algorithm views the under as 58.2% likely to occur, making it a two-star-out-of-five recommendation from numberFire’s algorithm.
The median score projection is 107.2 to 102.4 for a total of 209.6 points, based on numberFire’s model. My model projects a total of just 206.1. A lot is pointing to the under.
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings
Yeah, so here’s another under recommendation.
Again, this one is based in tracking the betting action (which features a 33-point discrepancy in the tickets compared to the money). But numberFire’s algorithm also loves it and rates it as a five-star bet out of five. The under is 76.3% likely to occur, per our algorithm, and 22 of our 25 strongest predictions — historical games that are most similar to this one — resulted in the under.
Through seven games, the Sacramento Kings rank only 19th in estimated offensive rating (105.0), and the Chicago Bulls are 21st (104.5). Now, both teams do rank bottom-eight in estimated defensive rating, but based on my research, offensive performance tends to win out over defensive performance long-term.
The median projection for this game in numberFire’s model is 215.1, not even close to the 229.5-point posted total.
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers
Let’s mix it up for this final one by going away from the unders and looking for a good spread. The Philadelphia 76ers to cover the 6.5-point spread checks out.
First, numberFire’s algorithm views it as a three-star bet to make and sees the Sixers’ covering as 62.2% likely. The median spread in our projected games is 10.4 points (118.7 to 108.3). My model is similar to that, viewing this one as a should-be 10.7-point spread. The 76ers covered in 65.2% of my sims.
The betting action is also on the 76ers to win by 7 or more, with just shy of 75% of the tickets and money for the home team to cover.
Through seven games, the Washington Wizards do rank 10th in estimated offensive rating but are a -2.6 in estimated net rating, an indication of their true performance based on underlying data. The 76ers are a +8.6 in estimated net rating, indicating a per-100-possession gap of 11.2 points between the two teams before accounting at all for home-court advantage (which hasn’t really existed this season at all).