NBA Betting Guide for 12/23/20: Some Unders Stand Out on a Full Slate
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where does our algorithm and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers
This game isn’t ultimately projected to be close — we give the Philadelphia 76ers an 84.9% chance to win outright — and the spread is 7.5-points in favor of them at home against the Washington Wizards.
Our algorithm pins the 76ers to cover as a three-star bet out of five, and they covered the spread in 62.1% of our simulations of this game. That’s good for an expected return of 18.6.%.
Our power rankings give the 76ers a nERD of 58.0, meaning we’d expect them to win 58.0% of their games this season. That implies a point differential of +2.4. The Wizards’ mark of 36.8 suggests a point differential of -4.0. That’s a 6.3-point gap before adjusting for homecourt advantage. Further, the betting trends favor this one: 60% of the bets and 65% of the money are on the 76ers to cover the spread, via oddsFire.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
The recommendation here is actually on the under, though, at 216.5 points, a four-star bet based on our model’s simulations. The game failed to get to 217 points in 66.8% of the simulations. Plus, the nine strongest predictor games in our database — those that mirror the matchup and betting lines — all finished under the posted total. Of the top 17 strongest predictors, 16 hit the under.
This is another situation where we see a discrepancy in betting tickets and the money: 61% of the tickets are on the over, but only 50% of the money is.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
I’m going to go with another under here because numberFire’s algorithm likes that to happen frequently. This game finished under the 226.0-point total in 68.6% of the simulations. And in my model, which accounts for adjusted offensive and defensive ratings and adjusted pace, the under hit 71.1% of the time, so there’s synergy there between the two.
Last year, the Sacramento Kings ranked 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency but 22nd in adjusted pace. The Denver Nuggets were 5th in adjusted offensive rating but 29th in adjusted pace. So, it’s the pace, really, that should lead to the under.
numberFire’s median score for this game is 112.4 to 103.3 for the Nuggets, a combined point total of just 215.7.