NBA Betting Guide for 12/30/20: Back Boston and Dallas Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets are currently 15th in estimated offensive rating through four games, albeit with resting Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in one of their games. In games with them, they have an offensive rating of 125.9 — and a stout defensive rating of 95.1. The Atlanta Hawks‘ estimated offensive rating is 118.1, so there’s a lot to like about the offenses.
The over/under in this game is a robust 240.5 points after having dipped to 239 early this morning. Despite all this offensive love, our algorithm sees a ton of value on the under.
Our projection for this game is a median score of 226.6 points, and the under is 75.6% likely to occur. The over hit in only 2 of our 25 strongest predictions — the games most comparable to this one, historically.
There has been 55% of the money on the under — and 63% of the betting tickets — via oddsFire, so more points to the under than the over.
Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics
There’s harmony between numberFire’s algorithm and the betting trends on the Boston Celtics to cover the 6.0-point spread in this game.
Our median projection for this one is a 9.1-point win for Boston over a Memphis Grizzlies team that is without Ja Morant and others. Without Morant since the start of the 2019-20 season, the Grizzlies are roughly 1.6 points worse per 100 possessions, which is enough to be down on them against a Celtics team that needs to get things right. Boston is just 2-2 with an estimated net rating of -5.6.
numberFire’s projections see the Celtics covering the spread 56.8% of the time, and my simulations have it at 58.1% likely. The betting trends are hot on the Celtics, as well, with 80% of the money on Boston to cover.
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
Our algorithm sees a lot of value in this game with at least a three-star bet recommendation on the Dallas Mavericks‘ moneyline (-340), Dallas to cover (-8.0), and the under (224.5).
The betting trends are in agreement with the Mavericks’ moneyline and their covering the spred — but prefer the over. Our estimated score for this game totals 218.1 points, and my model pegs it at 218.5. In all, 15 of the 20 strongest predictors of this game hit the under.
Dallas has started the season with the fourth-best estimated offensive rating in the NBA (114.1), and the Charlotte Hornets are 19th (103.4). Where the under gets most of the juice is pace. The Mavericks are currently 30th in estimated pace and offensive seconds per play, and though the Hornets are 8th, they were 30th in opponent-adjusted pace a season ago.
The Mavericks should put up points but keep their pace in check, and the Hornets aren’t particularly efficient with their added tempo so far.