NBA Betting Guide for 12/31/20: Is Houston a Lock With DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall Back?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
I always like to look for harmony between numberFire’s projections, my projections, and the betting trends, and we have agreement on the under at 237.0 points for this matchup.
numberFire’s median projection for this game is a 115.7-111.8 win for the Washington Wizards, a total of 227.5 points. That’s 9.5 points off the pace of the posted over/under. My model anticipated a total of 233.2 points for this matchup. The under hit 61.8% of the times in my simulations, and it’s 67.2% likely, per numberFire.
oddsFire shows that 68% of the betting tickets and 70% of the money is on the under, as well, so all three are in agreement for the under being the preferred play here.
Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
Houston’s moneyline is -225, which implies a win probability of around 69.2%. numberFire’s sims project the Rockets — with John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins debuting — to win 77.8% of the time. The Rockets won this one 78.8% of the time in my simulations — very similar numbers there. A 78.0% win probability suggests a moneyline of -355, so you can see why that’s getting the recommendation here.
And again, the action is backing it up: 65% of the tickets and 74% of the money is on the Rockets to win outright.
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors
I’ve recommended a lot of unders this season so far, and that’ll continue tonight with a second one here. It’s just where the value has been pre-game for most of the contests. The largest discrepancy on the entire board between betting tickets and betting money, actually, is on the under here with 31% of the tickets on the under but 47% of the money.
The median projection for this game, based on numberFire’s algorithm, is 112.9-99.1, a total of just 212.0, comfortably shy of the 217.0 over/under. The under is 59.1% likely to hit, based on numberFire’s projections, and my model predicted a terribly low total of just 208.3 points. The Raptors currently boast the worst estimated offensive rating in the NBA but are fourth in estimated defensive rating.