NBA Betting Guide for Monday 5/3/21: Finding Tonight’s Best Bets
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
Both of these teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, not that it’s a real surprise, but the betting public and our betting algorithm are finding some value in this spot nonetheless.
That comes in the form of the over (210.0), which our model sees as 60.7% likely to occur. That leads to an expected return of 15.8% on bets. The over/under opened at 213.5 points before trending down.
At this point, though, we’re seeing 77% of the betting tickets and 73% of the money on the over, per oddsFire.
The Orlando Magic have been super over-friendly since the trade deadline, hitting the over in 70.0% of their games. The Detroit Pistons, though, have done it in 43.8% of their games since the deadline.
Our model also likes Detroit’s moneyline (-120), rating it as a three-out-of-five opportunity.
Philadephia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
Our model sees this one playing fairly closely but likes the over (211.5) most of all, rating it as a three-star recommendation out of five. The model projects this game to go over 65.4% of the time and projects a median point total of 219.3 points.
The Bulls aren’t totally healthy, either: Zach LaVine is doubtful, and Nikola Vucevic is questionable. Without them since the trade deadline, the Bulls have a terrible offensive rating (98.5). That ramps up to 110.6 when Vucevic is playing without LaVine, however.
The relatively tight spread (Philly by 5.0) suggests that Vucevic could play, and in that case, the over is firmly in play, as well.
That’s where the model — and the public — are leaning. The over is receiving 86% of the bets and money.
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
Our model is loving the Utah Jazz even when laying 7.5 points. Utah -7.5 is a three-star recommendation out of five and projects them to win this game by an average of 12.6 points. Our model also loves the Jazz moneyline (-320), rating it as a five-star bet opportunity.
I’m a little less sold, given a few things: the San Antonio Spurs are trending up with a +2.7 net rating over the past 15 games (Utah’s is +5.9 in that span). Utah is listing both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley as out, and their net rating falls to -1.9 without them on the floor.
However, in four games without them, they’ve figured things out offensively, at least. They’re 2-2 as far as record goes, but they score 120.6 points per 100 possessions and allow 114.6, giving them a net rating of +4.0 in such games.
What I’m getting at is that the spread’s a little tight, but the moneyline looks good.
Instead, the over (220.5 down from 223.5) has appeal once again. It’s receiving 79% of the bets and 68% of the money, and using those relevant samples from above, my model anticipates a total of 228.4 points.