NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 1/19/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nikola Jokic Triple-Double and the Nuggets to Win (+240)
Under player performance boosts, there are usually some plus-money options, this being one of my favorites. Nikola Jokic is terrorizing the league right now, averaging 25.0 points (T-11th), 11.4 rebounds (7th), and 10.3 assists (1st) per game. Jokic has five triple-doubles on the season and missed out on four more by falling just one rebound or assist shy. In 13 games, he nearly has nine triple-doubles, and versus Oklahoma City Thunder, a blowout could be the only thing holding Jokic back from recording another triple-double.
The Denver Nuggets are -9.5-point favorites — so no need to worry about the win portion for half the bet. In Denver’s six wins, Jokic has averaged 22.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.5 assists in 32.8 minutes, compared to 37.7 minutes in losses. Figuring he will likely play 35 minutes at most, let’s see what he’s done in fewer than that this year. In six games with 35 minutes or fewer, Jokic has triple-doubled in two, fell short by one board or assist in two more, and was of a triple-double by two boards in another outing. Jokic has a 28.11% usage rate on the season, and our model projects the Serbian center to record 24.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 9.2 assists in 34.7 minutes — good enough for me as he’s recorded nine or more assists in four of his last five games. I like the odds of him picking up his fifth triple-double.
Mike Conley Over 5.5 Assists (-144)
Mike Conley recorded his third-most assists on the season last game versus the Nuggets with eight. Tonight, he’ll be matched up with the New Orleans Pelicans, who allow the 2nd-most assists per game (5.80) to shooting guards and rank 17th against point guards (8.59). In his last two games, Conley’s recorded eight in each and he’s had five or more assists in eight of his previous nine games.
Conley hasn’t played as many minutes as you’d like to see in backing this wager, but in his last seven games, he’s recorded at least five assists in each and hit six or more in five of seven. Conley’s only played 30 or more minutes in two of those games — so the production is there even if the minutes aren’t. Conley has led the Utah Jazz in assists for 7 straight games and in 9 of his last 10 outings. Our model projects Conley to play 32.8 minutes and post a total of 5.1 assists — versus the Pelicans’ questionable defense, I’ll back Conley to continue his stellar play and reach the over.