The Denver Nuggets get set to host James Harden and the Houston Rockets Wednesday night as they look to build on back-to-back wins. Houston heads into this matchup having won eight in a row.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
- Houston Rockets: +118
- Denver Nuggets: -138
- Houston Rockets +2.5: -110
- Denver Nuggets -2.5: -110
- Over 223.5: -105
- Under 223.5: -115
Key Points to Consider
Strong Start: Through 14 games, James Harden is averaging 39.2 points per game, putting up 14+ shot attempts from beyond the arc per night. The numbers are unheard of, but it’s clearly working as the Rockets haven’t lost since Nov. 3. In November, Harden is averaging 40.2 points per game on 445 shooting.
Offensive Numbers: Houston enters Wednesday’s match leading the league in offensive rating (112.7) and owning the fifth-best net rating (+5.5).
X-Factor: He might not be the team’s biggest star, but Denver’s Will Barton is an x-factor night in and night out. He averaging close to 15 points per game on 46.2% shooting from beyond the arc. He adds a 3-and-D type talent the team doesn’t have without his production.
ATS: Houston is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last four games overall.
James Harden is projected to lead Houston with 36 points on 46% shooting, 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 1 steal. He averages close to 6 TOs per sim.
Jamal Murray is projected to lead Denver with 20 points on 46% shooting, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 steal.
Houston to cover.
Four-star (out of four) hot trend pick. While odds-makers have the Nuggets as slight home favorites, the Rockets actually win more simulations matchups than do the Nuggets. AccuScore data would have had Houston as slight favorites, and we’re always interested when odds and sim data are on opposite sides of the money line.
Average score in sims is 115-113, in favor of Houston.
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